South China Sea forecast a year after court ruling: calm but waves expected

A year of relative calm in the South China Sea following a historic ruling against China’s territorial claims in the disputed region does not mean tensions will never resurface, analysts say.

Few expected the hubbub over long-running disputes involving seven claimants to fade so dramatically following the ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague on July 12 last year, but a new administration in the Philippines, the country that instituted the proceedings, swept tensions under the carpet.

However, many diplomatic and legal experts say the lull is just temporary and the ruling, which unequivocally rejected China’s expansive claims, will remain a major source of tension in the region for years to come.

The unanimous court ruling, which rejected Chinese claims based on historic rights and Beijing’s vaguely articulated nine-dash line, was one of China’s biggest diplomatic setbacks in decades and Beijing initially reacted indignantly to it. On top of its hardline approach of non-involvement and non-compliance in the case, it launched a propaganda blitz to belittle the ruling as part of a US-led attempt to encircle and isolate China.

But after reviewing how they could have got it so wrong, top leaders in Beijing now appear emboldened rather than deterred and have consolidated and expanded China’s presence in the contested waters, accelerating the militarisation of man-made features.