Who’s winning the trade war? Everyone but Trump.
Even as China and the U.S. push toward a trade deal, the long-term trends in global trade are still against American producers.
This story is being published by the South China Morning Post as part of a content partnership with POLITICO. It was reported by Adam Behsudi and originally appeared on politico.com on May 22, 2018.
There may be new winners as President Donald Trump ramps up trade pressures on China: America’s top competitors.
Brazil could bring millions of new acres of land into production faster with the help of Chinese investments in its roads and railways, a boom for soybean farmers seeking an edge over U.S. farmers. In Europe, Airbus is poised to ramp up production to fill Chinese orders that were originally meant to go to U.S.-based Boeing. Australia, Canada and other countries may be able to export the scrap aluminum and other recyclables the U.S. used to send to China en masse.
Even as China and the U.S. push toward a trade deal, the long-term trends in global trade are still against American producers when it comes to China’s consumption. And while the U.S. could drop some of its tariff threats against Beijing, others are likely to remain: Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on Tuesday said U.S. penalties on imports of steel and aluminum would stay in place.
“I advise clients, prepare for the worst, hope for the best, but do not assume we are going back to a status quo situation where everything is going to be OK again,” said William Cohen, a former Defense secretary who now leads a business advisory firm.
“China has changed the gravitational pull in the universe,” he added.