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Lee Jeong-ho

A summit between the leaders of the United States and North Korea will still go ahead because there is too much at stake at home for either side to cancel.
And even if the summit were postponed, the eventual outcome would be the same: progress but no breakthrough.
That was the assessment of diplomatic observers on Wednesday after US President Donald Trump warned that his meeting with North Korea’s Kim Jong-un might not take place on June 12 as planned.
Trump says summit with North Korea’s Kim Jong-un may be delayed
Trump also underlined his suggestion that Kim had hardened his position towards Washington and Seoul as a result of the North Korean leader’s meeting earlier this month with Chinese President Xi Jinping.


China’s foreign ministry said on Wednesday that China had played a positive role over the Korean peninsula and hoped the planned US-North Korea summit could proceed smoothly.
The developments are expected to be high on the agenda when Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi meets US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in Washington during a stopover on his way back to China from Argentina.
Pyongyang has taken a tougher rhetorical and diplomatic line against South Korea and the US in the last week. It cancelled high-level talks with Seoul and lashed out at US national security adviser John Bolton for suggesting Libya as a precedent for a nuclear-free North Korea, a model that would involve Pyongyang destroying all documents and equipment related to its nuclear and missile programmes before sanctions could be lifted.

However, North Korea has granted visas to eight journalists from the South to witness the dismantling of its nuclear test site this week.
South Korean lawmaker Park Byeong-seug, from the ruling Democratic Party of Korea (DPK), said Washington and Pyongyang both needed a successful summit to meet their own political goals and interests, and it was highly likely the meeting would go ahead.
“The Trump administration needs to negotiate with North Korea to achieve peace on the Korean peninsula ahead of the upcoming midterm elections,” Park said.
“North Korea must use this opportunity to enter the international community and focus on economic development. If it misses this opportunity, it will become harder for [North Korea] to gain momentum for economic development.”




In a surprise announcement last month, Kim told the elite of the ruling Workers’ Party of Korea that he would move away from his byungjin strategy of developing nuclear weapons and the economy simultaneously, to put the full focus on rebuilding the country’s economy.
If Trump-Kim summit happens, what next? China-US relations may provide a road map
South Korean lawmaker Lee Seok-hyun, also from the DPK, agreed that Washington and Pyongyang desperately wanted the talks and both sides were using rhetoric to jockey for position.
“Trump is a businessman and he would not want to put himself in a weaker position ahead of the summit. He had to show equal measure against the North’s threat to reconsider the summit,” Lee said.
“The summit will not be postponed.”

Zhao Tong, a fellow at the Carnegie-Tsinghua Centre for Global Policy, said the outcome of the summit was more important than when it took place, and Trump might be trying to delay the meeting because he did not have much other leverage.
“The ideal summit outcome for the US is for North Korea to give up its nuclear programme, and Trump won’t mind postponing the talks if he can ultimately achieve this goal,” Zhao said.
“The timing may still vary depending on Trump, but the outcome of the summit is not likely to change: Pyongyang will retain its nuclear deterrence. That is the reality.”


Observers said Kim and Trump were trying to blame each other for the tensions but neither could walk away from the talks without being accused of derailing the peace process.
China tells Trump to stay calm over North Korea threat to cancel nuclear summit
Lim Tai Wei, an adjunct research fellow at the National University of Singapore’s East Asian Institute, said it was not all tough talk from the US – Trump had also offered Kim the prospect of economic gains to strike a deal.
“This indicates there is still an intention from the US side to have the possibility and prospect for economic outreach to Pyongyang if the weapons and nuclear deals could ... work out,” Lim said.
“Delaying is not as important an issue as the summit taking place. If the time is ready for both sides bilaterally, if the summit takes place, it is still an overall positive development.”
Ko Yu-hwan, a professor of North Korean Studies at Dongguk University in Seoul, agreed that Trump’s suggestion that the summit might be delayed was a negotiating tactic.
“Trump can’t accept a failed summit, so he is using strong words to try to move the talks in his direction,” Ko said.
US Representative Ted Lieu, a member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said North Korea had wanted a summit with the US for a long time.
“Both sides could declare victory and then go forward with a long process of getting to an eventual deal,” he said.
“All the three countries, South Korea, North Korea and the US, have big incentives to have this summit actually happen.”
Additional reporting by Laura Zhou and Zhenhua Lu


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North Korea

‘Too much to lose’: why Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un won’t cancel the US-North Korea summit

US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un have too much at stake to cancel their summit next month, observers say. Photo: AP

In this April 27, 2018, photo, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un speaks with South Korean President Moon Jae-in at Peace House of the border village of Panmunjom in the Demilitarized Zone, South Korea. Seoul says North Korean leader Kim plans to shut down the country's nuclear test site in May and reveal the process to experts and journalists from the United States and South Korea. Seoul's presidential spokesman Yoon Young-chan said Sunday, April 29, Kim made the comments during his summit with South Korean President Moon on Friday, April 27. (Korea Summit Press Pool via AP)

TOPSHOT - CORRECTION - This photo taken on November 29, 2017 and released on November 30, 2017 by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) shows launching of the Hwasong-15 missile which is capable of reaching all parts of the US. / AFP PHOTO / KCNA via KNS / KCNA VIA KNS / - South Korea OUT / REPUBLIC OF KOREA OUT ---EDITORS NOTE--- RESTRICTED TO EDITORIAL USE - MANDATORY CREDIT "AFP PHOTO/KCNA VIA KNS" - NO MARKETING NO ADVERTISING CAMPAIGNS - DISTRIBUTED AS A SERVICE TO CLIENTS THIS PICTURE WAS MADE AVAILABLE BY A THIRD PARTY. AFP CAN NOT INDEPENDENTLY VERIFY THE AUTHENTICITY, LOCATION, DATE AND CONTENT OF THIS IMAGE. THIS PHOTO IS DISTRIBUTED EXACTLY AS RECEIVED BY AFP. / "The erroneous mention[s] appearing in the metadata of this photo by KCNA VIA KNS has been modified in AFP systems in the following manner: [Hwasong-15 missile] instead of [Hwansong-15 missile]. Please immediately remove the erroneous mention[s] from all your online services and delete it (them) fr

Donald Trump says US summit meeting with North Korea’s Kim Jong-un may be delayed

South Korean President Moon Jae-in meets with US President Donald Trump at the White House on Tuesday. Photo: AP

US President Donald Trump greets South Korea's President Moon Jae-in upon his arrival at the White House for meetings on May 22, 2018 in Washington, DC. / AFP PHOTO / Mandel Ngan

China tells Trump to stay calm over North Korea threat to cancel nuclear summit

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi pictured during his visit to Paris. Photo: EPA-EFE

(FILES) In this file photo taken on April 9, 2018 US President Donald Trump shakes hands with National Security Advisor John Bolton during a meeting with senior military leaders at the White House in Washington, DC. John Bolton -- Donald Trump's national security advisor known for his bold mustache and even bolder statements -- now finds himself in North Korea's sights, with Pyongyang upset over his suggestion that it follow Libya's lead on denuclearization. This is the biggest hiccup in the tentative rapprochement that began on March 8, when the president stunned the world by saying he was ready to meet North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.On May 16, 2018, Kim's regime expressed its dismay and threatened to scrap the much-anticipated summit between the two mercurial leaders set for June 12 in Singapore. / AFP PHOTO / NICHOLAS KAMM

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Despite the tough talk, the two leaders are not likely to abandon their plans for a meeting, observers say


‘Too much to lose’: why Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un won’t cancel the US-North Korea summit

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Despite the tough talk, the two leaders are not likely to abandon their plans for a meeting, observers say

Despite the tough talk, the two leaders are not likely to abandon their plans for a meeting, observers say