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Wang Xiangwei
SCMP Columnist
China Briefing
by Wang Xiangwei
China Briefing
by Wang Xiangwei

Why stalled reforms are a bigger worry for China’s economy than a hard landing

Sliding markets, a troubled property sector and local government debt aren’t the real causes for concern

Is China’s economy heading for a hard landing this year or is it already happening? That is the question on the minds of an increasing number of investors after the nation reported a 6.9 per cent growth for last year while 2016 got off to a grim start with plunging stock, currency and oil prices.

Now billionaire investor George Soros is the latest to weigh in, saying in Davos last week that the Chinese economy was heading for a hard landing and it would contribute to global deflation. “A hard landing is practically unavoidable,” Soros said.

A hard landing was practically unavoidable, billionaire investor George Soros said in Davos last week. Photo: Bloomberg

But he tempered the prediction by saying Beijing could manage the hard landing as it had resources and greater latitude in policies, with more than US$3 trillion in reserves.

Such news is expected to further heighten investors’ concerns about China ‘s economic prospects.

But they are barking up the wrong tree, overreacting to the sharp falls in the mainland stock markets and currency volatility.

In recent years, some investors have fretted about the Chinese economy heading for a hard landing, but they have consistently been proven wrong. They tend to cite long standing structural weaknesses such as shadow banking, overcapacity, troubled property markets and local government debt levels.

But the truth is the nation’s economic fundamentals remain strong and it is making progress in rebalancing its economy towards consumer spending. For the first time, consumption accounted for more than half of economic growth for last year.

While the regional economies in the much developed coastal provinces are slowing and struggling to upgrade their economic mix, the potential for gains through infrastructure spending in the inland provinces is still huge.

Overpasses light up in blue in Jinan, in China’s east Shandong province. The potential for gains through infrastructure spending inland provinces is still huge. Photo: Reuters

Much of the current bearish sentiment stems from plunging stock prices but China’s stock markets, labelled by some as “casinos”, have never been a reliable barometer of the economy.

Investors looking towards the medium to long term should focus on the progress of the reform agenda, which aims to transition the country to a full market economy. Unfortunately, the signs are not very encouraging, which should be a bigger worry.

Ironically, “reform” is on lips of mainland policymakers every day. To highlight its importance, President Xi Jinping is heading a central leading group on deepening reforms to map out blueprints and enforce implementation. To be sure, China has made considerable progress in a few areas, including the internationalisation of the yuan and building up a very strong e-commerce sector.

But the recent currency fluctuations and massive capital outflow may have already slowed currency reforms. More worryingly, some officials and businessmen have complained that the overall reform drive has largely stalled. Certain key areas, like overhauling the state-owned sector, appear to have gone backwards.

Certain key areas, like overhauling the state-owned sector, appear to have gone backwards
In late 2013, leaders at the third plenum of the Communist Party’s Central Committee announced an ambitious reform blueprint promising sweeping reforms covering 60 areas. It vowed to allow market forces to play a decisive role in the economy and laid out detailed measures on how to achieve the goals, including reforming the state sector and giving equal status to private firms. At the time, many observers suggested that even if half of the measures were implemented, the economy would be on a much healthier track.
Top leaders, including President Xi Jinping (centre) and Li Keqiang (second right), attend the Communist Party’s third plenum in November, 2013 in Beijing. A raft of pledges were made by the Central Committee but two years later, there is little to show for it. Photo: Xinhua

Two years later and there is little progress to show for it all. Take the state sector. Some would argue the opposite of what was pledged is happening. Anecdotal evidence shows that the government is pushing for mergers to strengthen their monopolies, while foreign businesses have bitterly complained they face what they say is unfair scrutiny and greater regulatory controls.

More ominously, instead of pushing state-owned enterprises to function along market principles, some companies are clawing back previously introduced reform measures and incentives.

One mainland industrial conglomerate with a number of listed companies in Hong Kong has cancelled stock option awards to managers even though the packages had already received board approval.

It even forced some managers who had already exercised the options and sold the stocks to return the money. This is just one of many shenanigans going on at the state owned enterprises.

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