All eyes on Tsai as she sets tone for relations with Beijing
Cross-strait ties expected to worsen if incoming president doesn’t mention ‘1992 consensus’ in her inauguration speech, analysts on mainland say
Cross-strait relations are expected to worsen, with incoming Taiwanese president Tsai Ing-wen unlikely to mention the “1992 consensus” in her inauguration speech on Friday, according to mainland analysts of Taiwan affairs.
The address is expected to set the tone for her independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party’s stance on relations with Beijing, and the mainland has pressed Tsai to recognise the consensus in her speech as the basis of cross-strait links.
“It doesn’t matter whether she extends an olive branch,” Li Fei, a researcher with Xiamen University’s Taiwan Research Institute, said. “The key point is whether she will mention the ‘1992 consensus’ in her speech.
Cross-strait relations will definitely deteriorate if Tsai [Ing-wen] refuses to budge
“Cross-strait relations will definitely deteriorate if Tsai refuses to budge an inch in that regard.”
The consensus is a tacit understanding between Beijing and Taipei that there is only “one China”, but that each side can have its own interpretation of what constitutes “China”.
Tsai said earlier that she hoped to maintain the status quo in Taiwan’s ties with the mainland.
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But Li said this was unlikely unless the United States put pressure on her to do so.
Official delegations from various countries including Japan arrived in Taiwan on Thursday for the inauguration of the island’s first woman president. The DPP won parliamentary and presidential elections in a landslide in January, defeating the mainland-friendly Kuomintang of President Ma Ying-jeou.
Earlier reports suggested Beijing might cut communications with Taipei if Tsai did not make the concession.
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Mainland officials have tried over the last few months to push the DPP to accept the consensus, warning that ties would suffer if Tsai refused to acknowledge it.
The establishment of diplomatic relations between Beijing and Gambia, which was formerly a Taiwan ally, was seen as an attempt by Beijing to squeeze Taiwan’s international space.
The mainland has also appeared to pressure Taipei by barring it from joining the Beijing-initiated Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, and arranging for Taiwanese telecoms fraud suspects to be sent from Kenya and Malaysia to the mainland.
