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Delegates attend the closing session of the Communist Party’s 18th national congress at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on November 14, 2012. Photo: Xinhua

Why 13 is an unlucky number for China’s would-be Communist Party high-flyers

More alternate members of party Central Committee have been booted out in last four years than in previous 91

More rising political stars have fallen off the ladder to top Communist Party jobs since the 18th party congress, less than four years ago, than in the previous 91 years of party history.

Thirteen of the 171 alternate members of the party’s 18th Central Committee have fallen to earth since the November 2012 congress. Before that, only nine had been ousted since the founding of the party in 1921.

It’s not necessary for Xi to target all morally degraded officials
Johnny Lau Yui-siu, Veteran China-watcher

Alternate membership is an often used stepping stone for party cadres on the way to full membership of the Central Committee, and nobody has ever been promoted to the decision-making Politburo or its innermost Politburo Standing Committee (PSC) without first having served as an alternate or full member of the Central Committee.

Former premier Zhu Rongji was even catapulted from alternate member to state leader. He was made an alternate member of the party’s 13th Central Committee in 1987 before going on to become a member of the PSC in a major power reshuffle five years later.

One man on the same track but a slightly slower train is party general secretary Xi Jinping’s right-hand man Li Zhanshu, the director of the Central Committee’s General Office. Li was considered a “dark horse” as an alternate member of the 16th and 17th Central Committees, beginning in 2002, before landing a Politburo seat in 2012.

A party cadre who becomes an alternate member of the Central Committee at a relatively young age is very likely to become a full member at the next party congress if they avoid key mistakes in the intervening five years. That makes the downfall of 13 since the most recent party congress significant as the race heats up for top positions at the 19th party congress late next year.

The 13 fallen stars: (first row L-R) Zhu Mingguo; Yang Weize; Wang Yongchun; Wang Min; Wan Qingliang; Qiu He-; (second row L-R) Yu Yuanhui; Pan Yiyang; Chen Chuanping; Fan Changmi; Li Chuncheng; Li Yunfeng; Lu Xiwen. Photo: SCMP Pictures

The Chinese Communist Party is the world’s biggest political party, with 88 million members, but just 2,200 representatives, handpicked by party leaders, elect its Central Committee at national congresses every five years, with the Central Committee then electing the members of the Politburo and PSC.

The alternate members are ranked according to the number of votes they receive from party representatives, with those at the top of the list the first to fill Central Committee vacancies. By the end of last month, eight of 205 incumbent full members had been booted out for corruption.

Most of the 13 alternate members fell from grace at the same time as a political heavyweight of a political clique the members were associated with was ­removed.

Among the disgraced alternate members, Li Chuncheng, 60, former deputy party chief of the southwestern province of Sichuan, and Wang Yongchun, 55, former deputy general manager of China National Petroleum Corporation, were long-time protégés of former PSC member Zhou Yongkang, who was jailed for life last year after being found guilty of corruption.

Chen Chuanping, 54, former party boss of Taiyuan, the capital of Shanxi province, was implicated following the downfall of fellow Shanxi native Ling Jihua, former director of the party’s General Office, who was jailed for life on Monday.

People’s Liberation Army Lieutenant General Fan Changmi, 61, the former deputy political commissar of the old Lanzhou Military Region, was placed under investigation in late 2014, before the arrest of former Central Military Commission vice-chairman Guo Boxiong half a year later. Both Guo and Fan started their military careers in the 47th Army Corps in Shaanxi province, which was part of the Lanzhou Military Region.

Former Taiyuan party boss Chen Chuanping was implicated following the downfall of Ling Jihua, pictured at the opening session of the Communist Party’s 18th national congress in November 2012. Photo: AP

Li Yunfeng, 59, former executive vice-governor of Jiangsu province, Yang Weize, 53, former party chief in Nanjing, Jiangsu’s provincial capital, and Qiu He, 59, former deputy party secretary of the southwestern province of Yunnan, all belonged to the so-called “Jiangsu Gang” after serving in the affluent province for years before promotions.

However, it could be argued that three ousted alternate members who belonged to the Communist Youth League clique, known as Tuanpai, had the most to lose because of their relative youth. They are Wan Qingliang, 52, former party chief of Guangzhou, the capital of Guangdong province, Pan Yiyang, 54, former executive vice-chairman of the Inner Mongolia region, and Yu Yuanhui, 52, former party head of Nanning, the capital of the Guangxi region.

Other to have fallen include Zhu Mingguo, 59, a former head of the Guangdong provincial Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference who was long considered an ally of Vice-Premier Wang Yang, a former Guangdong party boss, and Wang Min, 59, a former party chief in Jinan, the capital of Shandong province, who was a secretary to Vice-Premier Zhang Guoli when Zhang was party secretary of the eastern province.

The only ousted female alternate member, former Beijing deputy party secretary Lu Xiwen, 60, was promoted twice when former Politburo member Liu Qi was party boss of Beijing between 2002 and 2012.

The average age of the 13 ousted alternate members is just over 56, meaning they were in the running for one, two or even three more five-year terms – as alternate or full members – following the reshuffle expected at next year’s party congress.

Veteran China-watcher Johnny Lau Yui-siu said top party leaders could winnow out some potential full members accused of making economic or, more importantly, political mistakes, especially when they belonged to rival cliques. That provided a clearer path for their own cronies and sent a political message to others.

PLA Lieutenant General Fan Changmi was placed under investigation before the arrest of Guo Boxiong, pictured at the annual meeting of the National People's Congress in Beijing in March 2012. Photo: AP

“Nonconformity gets punished,” he said. “Once notoriously corrupt high-ranking cadres have been subject to investigations, others may change their political stance and shift their loyalty.

“In this way, it’s not necessary for Xi to target all morally degraded officials. And they might rally to attack Xi if they believed he would spare none of them.”

Professor Bo Zhiyue, the director of the New Zealand Contemporary China Research Centre at Victoria University of Wellington, said he did not think most alternate members would be on Xi’s radar, although the 13 disgraced alternate members would have been under scrutiny by the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, the party’s graft buster, because all of them held positions of vice-ministerial level or above.

Bo said that in the 1960s, party chairman Mao Zedong sought to secure a majority in the Central Committee during a fierce power struggle with then president Liu Shaoqi, “but intraparty democracy nowadays is no longer concerned with whether there’s a minority or majority [in the Central Committee]; the top leader only has to consult the Politburo or the Politburo Standing Committee.”

Lau said the key point in a political struggle was to secure enough votes in the decision-making Politburo, and even though the votes of full Central Committee members decided its make-up, the number of candidates usually matched the number of vacancies.

This article appeared in the South China Morning Post print edition as: The decline and fall of 13 star-crossed political high-flyers The decline and fall of 13 star-crossed high-flyers in the Communist Party
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