Climate change to cost China US$389 billion, but impact on trade will make US a big loser too, study says

Flooding caused by climate change could cost China US$389 billion over the next two decades, far more than any other country, but the ripple effect of those natural disasters on global trade could see the United States coming out as a major loser too, a recent study has suggested.

In a report published in Nature Climate Change on Monday, researchers from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany and Columbia University in the US said the cost of flooding to China in the 2016-35 period was set to rise by 82 per cent from the previous 20 years.

In contrast, the US, which has a similar land mass to China, would face an economic hit of US$30 billion from river flooding in the years through 2035, while the damage to members of the European Union would fall somewhere between the two.

Although the initial cost to China of the flooding – which damages property, infrastructure, and agricultural and industrial production – will be significantly higher than elsewhere in the world, the strength of its trade networks should allow it to withstand the economic impact, the study said.

While the EU is similarly well equipped to rebound from the effects of extreme weather events, the US, with its increasingly protectionist stance on trade, is less so, the research said.