Losing the plot: is 'tight' land supply just a myth?

When officials keep on saying property prices are skyrocketing because "land supply is tight", it begs the question: just how much land is there left to build on?

The information released recently has been fragmented and sometimes misleading, like the Development Bureau's claim that vacant public land zoned for urban housing amounted to only 391 hectares. What's more, said the bureau, this was scattered around the city in plots too small to support larger developments.

This incorrect figure was cited to justify the controversial three-town project in the northeastern New Territories.

The bureau had left out a number of major supply sources, including MTR Corporation sites, projects underway by private developers and the Urban Renewal Authority, plus the hundreds of hectares of land under planning. Then there is the massive land bank held by private developers.

The figure of 391 hectares refers only to vacant government land in urban areas zoned for residential use. But a rough estimate by the South China Morning Post found that just the key readily available sources of land supply alone could yield more than 86,851 units, mostly in the private sector, in the coming decade.

The estimates have not taken into account planned public and private housing projects, for which comprehensive information is lacking.