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Juvenile-crime expert John Bacon-Shone wants to build better models for predicting who will reoffend.

Fewer prisoners ending up back in jail, thanks to increased help

The number of convicted criminals reoffending within two years of their release from jail has fallen by almost 10 per cent since 2000.

Lana Lam

The number of convicted criminals reoffending within two years of their release from jail has fallen by almost 10 per cent since 2000.

The recidivism rate fell from 39.9 per cent in 2000 to 31 per cent in 2010.

A Correctional Services Department (CSD) spokeswoman said the downward trend could be attributed to better rehabilitation programmes and improved attitudes from ex-offenders.

However, comparing Hong Kong's rates to other jurisdictions' was misleading, she said, as the method for calculating recidivism varied so much.

And that is exactly what juvenile-crime expert John Bacon-Shone wants to help change.

"I'm interested in how it's calculated and I'd like to build better models for predicting who will reoffend," he said, adding that he would also like to work with the government on creating a benchmark to compare jurisdictions.

He recently met officials from the department and is optimistic that he will be able to collaborate with them.

In the 1990s, Bacon-Shone carried out a comprehensive study on juvenile crime: "At that time, if a young boy had been put into detention, when they came out, the school would do their very best to kick them out. They weren't legally allowed to kick them out but they would make life very difficult."

Since then, the government has worked to improve the system, he said.

"As far as schools and employers are concerned, I know the CSD and Social Welfare Department have done a much better job than in the past at helping them get back into education and at getting a job."

More flexible approaches to sentencing had also had a positive impact. "Sentencing generally is less draconian now than in the past," he said, though mainly for minor crimes and first or second offences.

This article appeared in the South China Morning Post print edition as: With more help at hand, fewer inmates reoffend
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