Hong Kong government hopes public support can save reform
Ministers think pan-democrats could be swayed by strong public backing for an imperfect reform plan - but the prospect seems remote
The weight of public opinion in favour of a less-than-ideal version of universal suffrage in 2017 is the government's last hope of persuading pan-democrats to support a reform package.
But history suggests that only backing from a substantial majority of Hongkongers would persuade pan-democrats to put aside their distaste for the restrictive framework Beijing has set for the next chief executive election and drop the idea of a veto.
Pan-democrats, who hold 27 of the 70 Legislative Council seats, have vowed to deny the government the two-thirds majority it needs unless Beijing drops its insistence on only allowing two or three candidates, picked by a 1,200-strong committee dominated by the establishment, to run.
The prospects grew dimmer on Wednesday, when the government began a second round of consultation by publishing a paper that contained no apparent concessions.
Constitutional affairs minister Raymond Tam Chi-yuen said yesterday that internal polling had shown support for reform growing since the three-month Occupy Central street blockades for democracy ended on December 15. He said the support rate was over 60 per cent, though he did not reveal details of how the polls had been conducted. Independent polls, including one by Chinese University last month, have shown a more even split between those who want reform passed and support for a veto.
Tam said he could not understand the logic or political ethos of those pan-democrats who vowed to vote no even if the package had majority support.
"If they are representing the aspiration of members of the public, should they not look at the trend of public opinion first?" he asked. He said the government might conduct more polls and release the results during the two-month consultation.