Hong Kong's budget surplus underestimated for eighth year in a row

Financial Secretary John Tsang Chun-wah yesterday continued his unbroken streak of being wrong, revealing for the eighth year in a row that he had inaccurately predicted the city's budget.

As Tsang unveiled his new budget yesterday, he said the city would see a surplus of HK$63.8 billion for the financial year ending on March 31 - six times higher than his original projection of HK$9.1 billion.

The financial chief also predicted that the government in the next financial year would have a surplus of HK$36.8 billion, more than 40 per cent lower than this year. Tsang has not predicted a budget accurately since he became financial secretary in 2007.

Industrial sector lawmaker Lam Tai-fai criticised Tsang for miscalculating the figures, and warned that it would "cause the misallocation of public resources". He said the inaccurate predictions would obfuscate the city's long-term economic forecast, and hinder planning measures. The final estimate for this financial year put the government's revenue at HK$470.7 billion, which is HK$40.6 billion higher than originally forecast. The government is also expected to spend HK$397.2 billion.

Tsang attributed the unexpected surplus in part to stamp duty revenue, which he said had been HK$29.7 billion higher than first estimated.

The government's expenses were also lower than expected, likely finishing the year at HK$397.2 billion, some HK$14 billion lower than predicted.