Rejection of electoral reform package may be the lesser of two evils
The looming prospect of the government's electoral reform package being rejected by the legislature has prompted many to warn that such a result would be catastrophic for the city.
The looming prospect of the government's electoral reform package being rejected by the legislature has prompted many to warn that such a result would be catastrophic for the city.
Some politicians - including Legislative Council president Jasper Tsang Yok-sing and Executive Council convenor Lam Woon-kwong - have warned that Hong Kong will become ungovernable under that outcome.
Legislative affairs will get permanently stuck with the opposition camp's constant filibustering. The community will be deeply divided over the pace of democracy, with rival camps constantly pointing accusing fingers at each other.
But some political observers and legislators have argued that such a scenario would actually be a shade better than if the package were to be passed after some pan-democrats switch sides and supported the government.
Ronny Tong Ka-wah, a Civic Party legislator, warned: "It would radicalise the pan-democrats and probably there could be another round of occupation protests."
Federation of Students secretary general Nathan Law Kwun-chung, one of the core leaders in last year's Occupy Central protests, warned his group could launch an "occupy the legislature" campaign should any pan-democrats break their promise and vote for the government package.
Veteran China watcher Johnny Lau Yui-siu agreed a veto of the package could be the lesser of two evils for Hong Kong but that neither situation would make Beijing give any concessions.
"Beijing is aware of the possible impact of another wave of occupation protests and the problems of governance faced by [Chief Executive] Leung Chun-ying. Their assessment is that the risk is manageable," said Lau, citing his sources.
"In the eyes of Beijing, Legislative Council gridlock, non-cooperation by pan-democrats is nothing at all.
"And Hong Kong has got through the Occupy Central fine. So Beijing won't bother much."
City University political scientist James Sung Lap-kung also believed the pan-democrats would not go too far. "If the reform package is voted down, that means the old electoral system will stay for the 2017 elections," he said. "The pan-democrats will still have to prepare for the election committee elections.
"Launching another round of occupation protests or any other radical movement is not a good option for the pan-democrats because the government can easily bank on the people's discontent to turn public sentiment against them.
"That is the last thing the pan-democrats want to see because soon there will also be the district council elections, not to mention the legislative election next year."
According to a poll commissioned by the Concern Group for Public Opinion on Constitutional Development, 61.6 per cent of 1,004 people interviewed in January believed "there would not be serious consequences" if the next chief executive could not be returned by universal suffrage.
That was up from 55.8 per cent in a poll last July and 57 per cent last September. The poll also showed that 67.7 per cent of those who labelled themselves as more inclined to the pan-democrats also believed it would be not be a big deal to dispense with universal suffrage in 2017.
