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Pan-democrats left the Legco chamber during Chief Secretary Carrie Lam's speech on the political reform proposal. Photo: Sam Tsang

Wooing the moderates: democrats stand firm

In the first of a two-part series, moderates are adamant they will not vote yes on political reform

Four - that is the margin between success and failure for the government as it campaigns for support to pass the controversial political reform package now before the Legislative Council.

Going by those who have declared their stance, the administration is still short of four crucial votes to shepherd through the electoral blueprint, which needs the backing of two-thirds of the 70-member Legco to be approved. All the pan-democratic parties have shut the door on any backtracking of their vociferous objection to the restrictive framework set by Beijing that will see only two or three candidates get the support of a 1,200-member nominating committee to run for chief executive in 2017.

Enter the independent and seemingly moderate lawmakers who now appear to be the government's major lobbying target. Might four of them be persuaded to support the package?

In interviews with the , six lawmakers - frequently dubbed the "key suspects" most likely to be persuaded - insist they remain firmly opposed to the reforms. But even at this advanced hour, they say some concessions - which are highly unlikely - might move them.

Ronny Tong Ka-wah, long regarded as a dissident in the Civic Party because of his moderate stance, is among the six interviewed. He advocated a middle-of-the-road plan last year, proposing an overhaul of the composition of the nominating committee to make it more representative even if candidates were not chosen directly by the public.

Another is Frederick Fung Kin-kee, the sole representative of the Association for Democracy and People's Livelihood in Legco. He is one of the legislators who have expressed in the strongest terms their wish to meet central government officials before the legislature votes. He is hoping for a breakthrough deal at the last-minute.

It would not be the first time Fung had backed an eleventh-hour deal. Despite earlier objections, Fung and another lawmaker, health service representative Dr Joseph Lee Kok-long, voted for a compromise 2012 reform package which allowed 3.2 million voters to elect five new lawmakers. The candidates are pre-vetted by district councillors rather than directly elected as originally proposed.

Ivan Choy Chi-keung, a political scientist, believes the government is trying to snatch votes from non-affiliated lawmakers as it is highly unlikely it can win votes from major pro-democracy parties.

"I cannot see how the government can get any votes from the parties given their bad relationship with each other," he says, citing Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying's ban on his ministers and political appointees attending the Democratic Party's anniversary dinner in February. "Would you worsen the relationship this way if you truly want the Democrats' votes?"

But Choy concedes that a better relationship may not translate into votes. He believes for now the moderates look set to face punishment later at the polls from pan-democrat supporters if they say yes.

"It's not the case that these lawmakers can cast the vote in favour of the proposal and simply leave the political arena immediately. They still have to stay and work on the local legislation of the reform afterwards … the pressure and attacks on them could be tough," says Choy.

Still, if they say no to the package, the prospect of tension erupting in the city is a gamble they seem prepared to make. But the other scenario of an escalation of protests if the reform package is passed by a razor-thin margin - helped by the so-called pan-democratic defectors - is also likely, this camp says. Whichever way the vote goes, Hong Kong must brace itself for a summer of discontent.

 

Charles Mok may not be affiliated to any party in Hong Kong, but this does not make him an easy target for government approval

Illustration: Lau Ka-kuen
When Charles Mok first entered the legislature three years ago, the information technology sector lawmaker expected to be seen as one of the government’s key lobbying targets on political reform because he is not affiliated to any party.

But two months ahead of the Legislative Council’s vote on the reform package, Mok is sending a clear message to the government and its loyalists: securing votes from individual and functional constituency lawmakers is by no means easier than getting them from those who are party-affiliated and popularly-elected.

He also dismisses the widely-held assumption voters from functional constituencies tend to be more conservative and thus more keen to back the restrictive reform plan – which pan-democrats believe will effectively bar anyone Beijing dislikes from running for the city’s top job.

“I’m not textile and garment sector lawmaker Felix Chung Kwok-pan nor banking sector legislator Ng Leung-sing – whose seats are determined by corporate voters who are really conservative,” Mok, 50, says.

The IT sector is not exactly the bastion of conservatives, he says.

“It is a myth to argue that functional constituency lawmakers face larger pressure from voters should they veto the reform plan.”

Mok points to the young people from his sector who earlier placed a full-page advertisement in Chinese-language daily Ming Pao to oppose the “undemocratic” reform package. He points out polls have shown people with higher educational attainment or professional backgrounds tended to reject the plan.

On April 22, Mok joined the walkout staged by pan-democratic lawmakers to express opposition to the electoral blueprint that Chief Secretary Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor unveiled in Legco. But he and four other pan-democrats also stayed away from a media briefing by their colleagues that day.

Mok’s conspicuous absence fuelled speculation he could still change his position at crunch time when the votes are counted in Legco. However, he doused all murmurings when he told reporters not to read too much into his actions and that he would vote no to the package.

At this late hour, it would be impossible for the government to win his backing. He wants changes to Beijing’s framework, which stipulates that only two or three candidates approved by the majority of the 1,200-member nominating committee can run for chief executive. His demands include scrapping the cap on the number of candidates and lowering the approval threshold to 12.5 per cent, which government officials have repeatedly dismissed.

He says the current threshold reflects Beijing’s lack of trust in Hongkongers and this “vetting mechanism” must be scrapped.

Mok will also not be basing his decision on the majority views of his constituents. He does not plan to gauge their sentiments as he believes there is no way he can reach out to everyone in his sector fairly. Some IT associations have been reluctant to send out questionnaires as they want to stay politically neutral, he adds.

In any case, he insists his voters’ preference will not be the overriding factor in casting his historic vote.

“People could decide not to elect me again if they don’t agree with my stance,” he says.

Mok also believes a veto could “avert a crisis” for the government, as passing the contentious plan would only deepen the divide.

For now, Mok says he will not feel bad to be among a clutch of moderates labelled as possible swing votes. He says: “Misunderstandings will not last forever as I will cast my vote eventually.”

Jeffie Lam

 

Kenneth Leung vows to stay true to his principles, his conscience and the promise he made to voters

Illustration: Lau Ka-kuen
Lawmaker for the accountancy sector Kenneth Leung plans to honour his original election promise to his voters, even if his constituents may be shifting their stance.

The 52-year-old tax consultant ran on a campaign for genuine universal suffrage in 2012 and even if voters feel lawmakers should pocket the package, he will say no.

Leung accepts he is caught between a rock and a hard place: the pro-democracy voters who fear he will make a U-turn to back the government’s restrictive reform package, and the others who blast him for wanting to vote against it.

If that’s not complicated enough, the council of the Hong Kong Institute of Certified Public Accountants – made up of government appointees and officials – looks set to conduct a poll to gather the views of accountants on the reform plan.

But Leung – an accountant and a lawyer – refuses to be bound by the results of the poll, which he says is taking place because of government pressure.

“I will pay the price that you do not elect me because I have deprived you of a pseudo-vote,” Leung says. “The survey would offer me some important reference but I would not violate my principles, my conscience and the promise I made to voters because of the results.”

Leung was referring to his election manifesto of 2012, in which he said he would fight for universal suffrage that complied with international standards as enshrined in the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights, a UN treaty.

Leung says there are no concrete reasons for him to make any U-turn and accept the package based on the August decision of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress.

The government should at least lift the cap of two or three candidate and lower the nominating threshold from half to 12.5 per cent if it wants to win his vote, he says, sharing the view of information technology sector lawmaker Charles Mok.

The pair from the Professional Commons think tank are regarded as moderate voices within the pan-democratic camp. They have been known to stick their necks out and not always go with the bloc. Last year, when the pan-democrats were putting every effort into demanding that Beijing grant all public voters the right to name chief executive hopefuls, the duo demurred. They, along with Dennis Kwok from the legal sector, chose to support the Civic Party’s Ronny Tong Ka-wah when the barrister put forward a middle-ground plan to accept Beijing’s proposal of prior vetting of candidates – but with a more broadly representative nominating committee and with a lower nominating threshold.

Leung says, he urged people not to be too harsh on Tong as he was just exercising his right to offer a counter-proposal even if it meant not allowing public nomination of candidates.

Leung says it’s too early to assess whether the pan-democrats have adopted the wrong strategy. He concedes they are facing a very tough battle, given the “zero trust” they have with Beijing. “But that doesn’t mean we should not do anything,” he says.

Should the package be rejected, he believes the pan-democratic camp should rebuild its relationship with the central government. It should also offer its own reform plans for further negotiation.

Leung says both the heads of pro-establishment parties and top government officials have been lobbying him to accept the package – but to no avail.

“I told them let’s work together in the post-veto era instead. They may have a pragmatic solution, but something must be resolved with our core values which cannot be compromised.”

Jeffie Lam

 

Health legislator Joseph Lee Kok-long resigned to the prospect of more large-scale demonstrations, no matter which way reform vote goes

Illustration: Lau Ka-kuen
Regardless of whether the Legislative Council approves the political reform package this summer, the representative for the health services functional constituency, Dr Joseph Lee Kok-long, believes one thing is inevitable – large-scale protests.

The losing side will ensure a protest takes place, says the lawmaker, who is withholding his support for the reforms unless the government makes major changes. He says the government should eliminate prior screening of chief executive hopefuls and allow Hongkongers to nominate candidates for the leadership election in 2017.

The best possible outcome from the political debacle, says Lee, would be for the clock to be reset on the issue, forcing both sides to engage with each other once more.

“We should all cast aside our differences after the veto and discuss the next steps on political reform … because while it is true that the executive and legislative branches will always be monitoring and balancing each other, it doesn’t mean our relationship has to be so confrontational,” Lee says.

Since the start of the current political reform exercise at the end of 2013, Lee, a registered nurse and Open University nursing professor, has said he would only support a reform package that gives Hongkongers three rights – to elect the chief executive, to stand for election, and to nominate candidates.

The package on offer from the government however adheres to guidelines laid down by Beijing last summer which allow only two or three candidates endorsed by the majority of a 1,200-member nominating committee to stand for election.

Lee says the package is unacceptable because it only addresses the right to elect the city’s leader and ignores the other two.

On the right to nominate candidates, he says that while he acknowledges Article 45 of the Basic Law stipulates a committee should nominate candidates, the central and local governments have failed to address Hongkongers’ demands for the committee to be made more “broadly representative”.

“They also failed to answer why the members of the nominating committee cannot be directly elected when the public can nominate candidates in district council and Legislative Council elections,” he says.

On the right to stand for election, Lee says that although the government proposed that candidates only need secure 120 nominations from the committee to stand in an internal primary, this still amounts to a form of screening that will oust those candidates who may be confrontational towards Beijing.

Since these two rights have been compromised, “it makes the right to vote for the chief executive less meaningful”, believes the political veteran, who won a third four-year term in Legco in the 2012 polls.

Lee says he has been pressured to change his mind. Secretary for Food and Health Dr Ko Wing-man asked him out to lunch on May 12, which Lee believed was an effort to lobby him to support the package.

But he says he has not been approached by the central government’s liaison office since a meeting he had with its director Zhang Xiaoming and Chief Secretary Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor on August 18 last year, which was also attended by several other pan-democrat lawmakers.

Lee is unfazed by suggestions that opposing the reform package would irk government supporters and trigger large-scale street demonstrations.

“When it comes to protests, it will make no difference whether the package is approved or not. No matter which way it goes, large numbers of people will be angry and take to the streets.”

Tony Cheung

This article appeared in the South China Morning Post print edition as: Wooing the moderates
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