Continued wrangling over reforms could mean 'game over' in 10 years
Ex-commerce chief says uncertainty may kill economy already losing ground to rivals
With Hong Kong's competitiveness declining, a former commerce minister is warning that it could be "game over" for the city within 10 to 20 years if wrangling over political reform persists.
Frederick Ma Si-hang said the next chief executive would avoid making tough decisions or addressing burning issues facing Hong Kong if the city did not attain universal suffrage for 2017.
"The pros of passing the proposal for the 2017 chief executive election are definitely greater than the cons, even if the government secures its passage by a razor-thin margin," he said.
Ma said the government would face huge difficulty in governance, as political unrest would drag on and filibusters mounted by radical pan-democrat legislators would become more frequent.
"It would be difficult for the chief executive to forge consensus on public-policy issues if he or she did not enjoy the mandate brought by 'one man, one vote'," he said. "If the reform blueprint is voted down, the next chief executive elected by a 1,200-strong panel would be likely to avoid tackling burning issues such as the ageing population and tax reform. Hong Kong would face further decline in its competitiveness under this scenario."
The government proposal for the 2017 chief executive race is based on Beijing's decision last August that when Hong Kong elects its leader by "one man, one vote" for the first time in 2017, it must choose from two or three candidates approved by the majority of a 1,200-member nominating committee.
All pan-democratic lawmakers have vowed to veto the package, saying it deprives voters of a "genuine" choice of candidates. The government will need the support of at least four pan-democrats in Legco in order to pass the reform scheme.
While conceding that the framework set by Beijing was "ultra-conservative", Ma said pan-democrats should support the blueprint to enable Hong Kong to move forward.
According to a report released by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences on May 15, Hong Kong had been unseated as the most competitive city in China for the first time in a decade.
The survey placed Shenzhen in top spot, followed by Hong Kong and Shanghai.
"If a man said 20 years ago Shenzhen would one day surpass Hong Kong, he would have been considered insane," Ma said.
"It will be game over for Hong Kong in 10 to 20 years if Hong Kong continues to be plagued by internal strife," he warned.
The former minister, who resigned from the administration in 2008 for health reasons, said more capable people would contest the chief executive election if universal suffrage was achieved.
But Ma, who has been tipped as a possible candidate, insisted he had no intention of running.