Continued wrangling over reforms could mean 'game over' in 10 years

With Hong Kong's competitiveness declining, a former commerce minister is warning that it could be "game over" for the city within 10 to 20 years if wrangling over political reform persists.

Frederick Ma Si-hang said the next chief executive would avoid making tough decisions or addressing burning issues facing Hong Kong if the city did not attain universal suffrage for 2017.

"The pros of passing the proposal for the 2017 chief executive election are definitely greater than the cons, even if the government secures its passage by a razor-thin margin," he said.

Ma said the government would face huge difficulty in governance, as political unrest would drag on and filibusters mounted by radical pan-democrat legislators would become more frequent.

"It would be difficult for the chief executive to forge consensus on public-policy issues if he or she did not enjoy the mandate brought by 'one man, one vote'," he said. "If the reform blueprint is voted down, the next chief executive elected by a 1,200-strong panel would be likely to avoid tackling burning issues such as the ageing population and tax reform. Hong Kong would face further decline in its competitiveness under this scenario."

The government proposal for the 2017 chief executive race is based on Beijing's decision last August that when Hong Kong elects its leader by "one man, one vote" for the first time in 2017, it must choose from two or three candidates approved by the majority of a 1,200-member nominating committee.

All pan-democratic lawmakers have vowed to veto the package, saying it deprives voters of a "genuine" choice of candidates. The government will need the support of at least four pan-democrats in Legco in order to pass the reform scheme.