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Legislative Council elections 2016
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Candidates hoping to win seats in the Legislative Council face more uncertainties at these elections compared with the polls four years ago. Photo: Sam Tsang

Showdowns, power shifts and infighting: what’s at stake in the Hong Kong elections

A quick guide to understanding some of the key issues in the Legislative Council polls

Here’s a quick rundown of the key issues at the upcoming polls:

Big showdown between the pan-democratic and pro-establishment camps before the chief executive election in March

Election hopefuls will hit the campaign trail in the days ahead after the nomination period for the September 4 Legislative Council polls ended on Friday.

Commentors see the polls, coming ahead of the chief executive election next March, as a barometer of public trust in Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying’s governance, and also a chance for Leung to show Beijing his ability to head the pro-establishment faction.

Speculation is rife that Beijing has set a target for the camp to secure at least 40 seats in the 70-member legislature. If the camp gets a thrashing, Beijing may reconsider its backing for Leung in the March race.

In remarks that seemed to add weight to such conjecture, Leung said in an earlier interview with the Post that he might wait until after September to decide whether to seek another term.

The pro-establishment camp won 43 seats last time.

“Leung needs to demonstrate to Beijing that he is a capable leader. But the reality is that not only are the pan-democrats against him, some pro-establishment parties have avoided voicing their support for him,” Dr James Sung Lap-kung, a political scientist at City University, said, referring to the stance of the leading pro-Beijing party, the Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong.

The party penned a prepared quote for its election hopefuls in case they were asked if they supported Leung for another term. It reads: “It is too early to talk about it. We shall consider whom we would support after there are candidates coming up and after we have studied their platforms.”

Power shifts as veteran lawmakers retire and localists emerge as a force

What is making the election outcome more difficult to predict this time is that at least 12 veterans are retiring and the relatively unknown faces taking their place will be up against localist candidates, a new force on the landscape.

At least seven other veterans will run in geographical constituencies placed second on their respective lists, meaning they have little chance of winning under the proportional representation system.

Pro-independence localist activists are contesting all five geographical constituencies. By Thursday there were three lists of localist candidates in Hong Kong Island, four in Kowloon West, two in Kowloon East, four in New Territories West and three in New Territories East.

They will be looking to build on the impressive gains made by post-Occupy activists in last year’s district council elections.

Sung considered the localists, some of whom want Hong Kong to break away from China, to be spoiler candidates who would probably lure voters away from pan-democrats, with those further to the left of the spectrum – such as the League of Social Democrats, People Power, and NeoDemocrats – bearing the brunt.

In the 2012 elections, pan-democrats grabbed 56.2 per cent of votes in the geographical constituencies. Some 16.2 per cent of votes went to People Power, League of Social Democrats, and NeoDemocrats.

“The impact of this spoiler effect will depend very much on how many younger people come out to vote,” Sung said.

Infighting in pan-democratic camp in five “super seats” battle fuels uncertainty

By Friday there were nine lists, effectively nine contenders, for the super seats. Candidates are district councillors, nominated by 15 other council members, who are chosen in a citywide poll. Five were from the pan-democrat camp and four from pro-establishment parties.

Dr Chung Kim-wah, a political observer at Polytechnic University, said: “That the pan-democrats failed to co-ordinate among themselves could end up seeing them lose at least one seat in the super seat election.”

The super seats were introduced in 2012 as a way to allow more people to vote – pan-democrats won three of the five.

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