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Chief Secretary Carrie Lam has been touted as the new favourite to become chief executive. Photo: K. Y. Cheng

Beijing probes Hongkongers on their views on alternative leaders

Process started in first quarter as officials sought views on Chief Secretary Carrie Lam and Financial Secretary John Tsang

Politicians, pundits and the public have been weighing up the chances of a re-election bid from Chief Executive Lueng Chun-ying since the summer, but even heavyweights in the pro-establishment camp were only informed a few hours before Leung made the jaw-dropping announcement on Friday.

Yet the central government’s lengthy deliberation on whether the divisive leader should be allowed to serve for another five years or an alternative be chosen to prevent further splits in Hong Kong had started as early as the first quarter of the year.

Since the conclusion of the annual meeting of the National People’s Congress in March, some mainland officials have been gauging the opinions of Hongkongers from different sectors on likely candidates to be the next chief executive.

Although Leung cited family reasons for his decision and while this was a key consideration, other factors such as his acceptability to Hong Kong also mattered to Beijing.

Noting the opposition to Leung, mainland officials who have been gathering intelligence are particularly interested in how Hongkongers view Financial Secretary John Tsang Chun-wah and Chief Secretary Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor.

The South China Morning Post understands that several pro-establishment politicians were invited to meet some state leaders overseeing Hong Kong affairs in Beijing in the summer.

“We were told before the meeting that state leaders would like to listen to no-nonsense and frank comments from us. We were asked to speak straight from our hearts,” a politician who attended the meeting said.

“All of us made harsh criticism of Leung, such as how his divisive style undermined social harmony in Hong Kong. The state leaders listened attentively and junior officials jotted down notes of what we said,” the politician said. “I believe some central government ministries handling Hong Kong affairs wanted us to sway the top leadership on its assessment of Leung’s performance through our frank comments.”

A day after the session with state leaders, the politician was invited for a meeting with a senior official handling Hong Kong affairs. “The senior official sought my views on Financial Secretary John Tsang Chun-wah. I had the impression that the official was in favour of Tsang taking up the post of chief executive next year,” the politician said. “I was later told by some mainland officials that the central government would make a decision on the chief executive after the Legislative Council elections in September.”

Beijing sounded out views on Chief Secretary Carrie Lam and Financial Secretary John Tsang (pictured) as chief executive candidates. Photo: David Wong

But the politician subsequently noted there were signs of Beijing’s distrust in the financial secretary because of his personal history, such as serving as final colonial governor Chris Patten’s private secretary from 1995 to 1997.

Many political figures who are well-connected with mainland officials believed that Leung’s chance for a second term was boosted in the wake of calls for Hong Kong independence since the middle of the year. They said Leung had scored points in the eyes of the central government by adopting a tough stance against independence activists.

Lau Siu-kai, vice-chairman of the mainland think tank, the Chinese Association of Hong Kong and Macau Studies, noted there were two factions within the central government regarding Leung’s performance.

“One faction blamed the obstruction by the opposition in Hong Kong and external political forces for the difficulties facing Leung’s administration. Another attributed the problem to the inadequacies in Leung’s governing capability,” the academic said.

Lau said as the chief executive election was looming, the central government was aware of the risk of Leung losing in the leadership race decided by the 1,200-member Election Committee given his unpopularity. The election of the body takes place today. It will decide the city’s next leader in March.

“Leung’s re-election would spark a backlash from Hong Kong people. The relationship between Hongkongers and the central government would unavoidably worsen,” Lau said.

He said the central government’s expectation of the chief executive had changed as it had taken the initiative in clamping down on independence activities. “The central government doesn’t need a chief executive to play hard ball. Instead, it wants the next chief executive to focus more on the city’s internal affairs and act as a facilitator of social harmony and economic development. “

Tian Feilong, an associate professor in the law school at Beihang University in Beijing, believed Leung’s decision not to run was made after communication with Beijing.

“Leung had taken the big picture into account when he arrived at his conclusion. Given his low popularity, governance in Hong Kong would face a gigantic challenge when the city is preparing to celebrate the 20th anniversary of the handover,” Tian said. “The central government has heeded public opinion in Hong Kong and would prefer the next chief executive to facilitate social harmony.”

Tian said Leung’s decision not to run defied conventional wisdom that Beijing would prop up an unpopular chief executive who adopted a tough governing style. “The central government has become more rational in handling Hong Kong affairs. A chief executive is not good enough if he or she only relies on tough measures and confrontational tactics.”

This article appeared in the South China Morning Post print edition as: Beijing officials probe Hongkongers on possible alternative leaders
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