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Chief executive election 2017
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Financial Secretary John Tsang (right) is likely to win support from pan-democrats. Photo: Jonathan Wong

Will he or won’t he? John Tsang still the big unknown in Chief Executive race

Three establishment candidates could be running for the top job – Chief Secretary Carrie Lam, finance chief John Tsang and lawmaker Regina Ip

The morning after Leung Chun-ying ruled himself out of the chief executive race, his subordinate and rival John Tsang Chun-wah shunned the media, opting for a studious silence on his next moves.

Who could blame him, said analysts, because even with incumbent Leung out of the way, Tsang immediately found himself facing the prospect of running against yet another colleague, Chief Secretary and government No 2 Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngo

Lam said on Saturday she was reconsidering plunging into the chief executive poll next March.

Tsang has not said when and if he would declare his candidacy, even as a source with knowledge of his plan told the South China Morning Post that the financial secretary was planning to resign and announce his bid this week after today’s Election Committee polls.

The rather crowded field and the prospect of not one but three pro-establishment contenders trading punches to win the job of chief executive should not make Beijing any less worried about the future, observers said.

The third possible pro-establishment aspirant, Regina Ip Lau Suk-yee, has all but officially announced her election bid. Commenting on Lam’s announcement yesterday, she said she welcomed a competitive race. As if to echo rumours about Beijing signalling a red light against Tsang, Ip said it would not be ideal for two ministers to jump into the fray, leaving the chief executive hamstrung without two deputies in the remaining seven months of his tenure.

As the Election Committee is about to be formed, all eyes are on whether pan-democrats will secure a quarter of the seats on the 1,200-member institution. The committee will select the chief executive in March.

Chief Secretary Carrie Lam is now seen as a frontrunner in the race for chief executive. Photo: Xiaomei Chen

Among the three potential pro-establishment candidates, Tsang is seen as the likeliest to win the backing of the pan-democrats and business sector.

With Leung out of the picture, Lam is seen as the possible benefactor of the support that would have gone to the incumbent.

Ip Kwok-him, an executive councillor, said it was logical to think that Lam could sway some more independent-minded and undecided pro-establishment people who might otherwise have loathed the idea of giving their vote to Leung. He said Lam had done a better job than the outgoing chief executive in appearing approachable to the public.

Comparing the different options, a mainland scholar said Lam would be the preferred candidate from Beijing’s perspective.

“Lam enjoys an edge over other potential rivals in the chief executive election because she possesses strong governing ability and affinity with people. She is also a rational and pragmatic official,” said Tian Feilong, an associate professor at Beihang University’s law school in Beijing.

Lawmaker Regina Ip is set to announce her candidacy at a rally on Thursday. Photo: SCMP Pictures

As convenor of the Hong Kong government’s taskforce on constitutional reform, Lam had experience of working together with central government officials and had good mastery of Beijing’s policies towards Hong Kong, Tian noted.

By contrast, while Financial Secretary John Tsang Chun-wah also had experience in public administration and high popularity, he “lacks experience in interacting with the central government on issues like political reform and the campaign against Hong Kong independence”, Tian said.

The central government also lacked full trust in Tsang because of his history of serving as last colonial governor Chris Patten’s private secretary, he said.

But Jasper Tsang Yok-sing, former president of the Legislative Council, came to the defence of the financial secretary, saying he had been repeatedly appointed by the central government to take up key positions in the Hong Kong government.

In the unlikely event of a tripartite race among the pro-establishment camp, it would be difficult for any one of them to secure 600 votes, the minimum for a winner to be declared.

Complicating Beijing’s calculation would be the 2012 experience when Leung scored only 689 votes, the lowest proportion in a chief executive race. This was ridiculed by Leung’s critics, who said he lacked a firm mandate.

Lau Siu-kai, a vice-chairman of the Chinese Association of Hong Kong and Macau Studies, said that as pro-establishment candidates would take the necessary step of informing Beijing of their intention, some would be given a signal to withdraw.

“If someone treats Beijing as a nobody, would he or she get the nomination?” Lau asked.

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