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  • Aug 20, 2014
  • Updated: 10:07pm
Edward Snowden
NewsWorld

The 'Snowden Effect': US spies say militants change tactics

But previous warnings of leaks causing damage to US security interests have proved overplayed

PUBLISHED : Friday, 28 June, 2013, 9:09pm
UPDATED : Saturday, 29 June, 2013, 4:55pm

Even as US intelligence agencies and their global partners assess potential damage from Edward Snowden’s disclosures about surveillance programs, militants have begun responding by altering methods of communication, a change that could make it harder to foil attacks, US officials say.

Intelligence agencies have detected that members of targeted militant organisations, including both Sunni and Shi’ite Islamist groups, have begun altering communications patterns in what was believed to be a direct response to details on eavesdropping leaked by the former US spy agency contractor, two US national security sources said.

The officials said it was too early to tell whether the recent changes in communications methods had caused a loss of critical intelligence or if there was now a greater risk of missing warning signs about future attacks. “You don’t know what you lose until after you’ve lost it,” one of the sources said.

You don’t know what you lose until after you’ve lost it

Previous dire warnings of leaks causing huge damage to US national security interests have proved overplayed. The leaking of tens of thousands of US diplomatic cables by Wikileaks in 2010 appears to have had far less impact than Washington initially warned.

And militants changing the way they communicate could actually hinder plots as they resort to different methods to avoid detection.

The charge that Snowden’s leaks are causing damage, made by officials speaking on condition of anonymity, comes as the Obama administration mounts a campaign to pressure Russia to extradite him. Russian president Vladimir Putin on Tuesday confirmed Snowden was in the transit area of a Moscow airport, but ruled out handing him to Washington.

The officials declined to specify what changes were spotted among militant groups, fearing that the more details provided on what was known about their behaviour the easier it would be for them to adapt.

One US telecommunications expert said privately that the militants’ latest adjustments likely included reduced electronic transmissions and more frequent switching of cell phones while they seek new encryption methods.

Flashpoint Global Partners, which monitors Islamist militant websites, has noted increased discussion of the NSA leaks.

How can the US continue to stand on high moral ground after demonising China and accusing us of hacking?

“The simple rule is that ‘don’t be a fool’ dont give ur real information on internet through email u use for jihadi activities. just use fake names and TOR browser is must,” one person posted, referring to an internet browser that can help the user remain anonymous and avoid surveillance.

Exactly how serious the damage might be is difficult to measure as intelligence agencies do not know how much more sensitive material Snowden possesses that has not yet been published.

Militants have a long history of trying to cover their electronic tracks.

Largely using written messages and trusted couriers, al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden hid for years until he was killed by U.S. forces in 2011. He advised militants to exercise extreme caution over electronic communications. Thumb drives and sim cards used to carry information should be destroyed after use, he told them.

Intelligence analysts around the world are working to determine the operational impact of Snowden’s exposure of methods used by the US National Security Agency and Britain’s Government Communications Headquarters agency to tap into telephone and Internet traffic.

Among the potential damage to Western intelligence is that foreign governments like Russia and China may have found out technical details of how Western agencies intercept communications and what specific links they monitor or tap into.

US officials fear that if Snowden, now allied with the anti-secrecy organisation WikiLeaks, releases more of the large cache of classified information he is believed to possess, there could be further fallout for Western counterterrorism operations.

US agencies are already operating on a “worst case” assumption that all of the classified material in Snowden’s possession has somehow made its way to one or more adversary intelligence services, several sources said.

The problem is one of public trust, a commodity now in very short supply

How much of a long-term impact Snowden’s actions have at home may depend largely on whether a backlash in the United States ultimately restricts how the NSA can use its tools.

“The problem is one of public trust, a commodity now in very short supply,” a former Western intelligence official said.

US and British officials insist that massive telephone and internet surveillance by the NSA and GCHQ, including collection of raw data about US phone calls and tapping by GCHQ into fibre optic trunk cables carrying internet traffic, has stopped attacks and is essential to public security.

The Office of the National Counterintelligence Executive, is still in the early stages of damage assessment from the Snowden leaks and it is not yet known when it will issue its findings, a US intelligence official said.

With Snowden’s disclosures pointing to US electronic surveillance of Chinese targets, Washington may face charges of a double standard when it holds cyber-security talks with Beijing next month.

“How can the United States continue to stand on high moral ground after demonising China and accusing us of hacking?” a source close to the Chinese leadership said in Beijing.

That stance is seen as a logical result of the Snowden saga by some American experts too.

“It will make it more difficult for us to appear holier than thou,” said James Lewis, a former State Department official who is now a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

 

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John Adams
Sorry Mr America, but this story is total and absolute rubbish, so please don't try to fool us in HK.
The militants changed their tactics over a decade ago, and if they didn't do so already they only had to watch the Hollywood firm "Zero Dark Thirty" which chronicles how bin laden was eventually caught to see how all-pervasive the USA is at spying over the internet, mobile phones, whatever, even down to the exact locations of mobile phones.
They - the militants - all knew that long ago and so they will not get caught again.
We all assumed that you, Mr America, were spying on them to the Nth degree, and quite rightly so. You have a right to protect your homeland.
But what we did NOT know is that you are spying on ALL of us as well to the same Nth degree : Chinese University, Qinghua University, Albert Ho, SCMP reporters, everyone.
BTW : Is this why my Hotmail now suddenly starts to crawl at tortoise speed instead of running like a hare as before ? Have you already nailed me down as a 'subversive' because I comment a lot on the SCMP, and mostly pro-Snowden / opposed to what Mr America is doing .
It seems more than a coincidence ...
Guess I will be refused a visa next time I need to go to the USA.
the sun also rises
maybe you should drop your intention to go there like this Old Hong Kong who never intends to go there for any reasons.Even the Grand Canyon,Las Vegas,Disneyland or the Emperor Tower no longer impress/attract me since I hate hypocrisy and arrogance deeply.
the sun also rises
'power in the north' ? China or Russia ? Or both ? Why don't you state clearly ? Yet now all the public in the world well know that the Big Brother (as described in George Orwell's novel,"1984") is nobody but Uncle Sam----the US under the black president Obama whose administration started to monitor and hack our Internet Exchange at Chinese Univ.ever since 2009 ! Of course, she had got 4 aides: the right-handed man,the Sunset Empire--the UK, and Australia, a loyal follower whose monitoring targets including South China (including our Hong Kong),India and south-east Asia (including Taiwan) plus Canada (responsible for Arctic Region) and lastly New Zealand (responsible for South-west Pacific) .These five pirate-typed nations are named,'Five Eyes' a term which is well-known in the west but new to we Hongkongers though.
Dai Muff
"... the Big Brother (as described in George Orwell's novel,"1984") is nobody but Uncle Sam" Ha ha ha. Very selective vision there. Which country is it bans you looking up "Winnie the Pooh" on the internet within about two hours of a certain image appearing? Or removes any mention of June 4th within seconds?
the sun also rises
you are no doubt a fan of Winnie the Pooh---------as naive as naive can be indeed ! Now everybody with sense in the world well knows that the Big Brother in our present world (and for at least a decade already) is nobody but Uncle Sam who feels insecure and his national security is at risk (by the threats of so-called terrorists maybe) !
Dai Muff
I love how some of you imagine that only the US is tapping electronic communications, with no mention of the power to the north.
As for US claims the militants are changing tactics, the militants have always known they were open to surveillance, it's the rest of us who didn't know we were being tapped.
jayb
what "high moral ground"? in international realpolitik, there was never any moral and there will be no moral. Snowden's revelation is only "new" to overwhelming majority of americans who have no clue about global affairs and the american cheer leading squad around the world (many in hongkong).
jayb
terrorists changing tactics after Snowden's revelation?
like moving out from hongkong, china since US is tapping hongkong/china's computers? -:)
the sun also rises
the late bin Laden used to warn his aides to destroy the Thumb drives and sim cards after using them.He well knew that they would be easily traced by the US intelligence agencies.The Muslim militants just don't have to change their tactics in communications since they used to use primitive methods ----delivering messages through the couriers or letters or even pigeons or codes that only they could understand ! We Chinese also had many types of sending secret messages----our mookcakes were first invented to send messages to revolt against the Mongolian rulers who brutally governed us. In a nutshell,the most simple method in sending messages might be the safest one in this electronic era when e-mails and smart phones are so commonly-used.
Hollander323
the saying by the US government about the change of tactics by the militants, is in fact a tactic itself..from this incident, we all learn that the US government is good at shrugging off blames and shedding responsibility.
Camel
Where there is an advantage there is also an disadvantage.
Are you willing to give up your rights, your freedom and your privacy for safety and security? Even with the risk of being controlled? If you want to be safe and secure, then you have to give up some of your rights and freedom. But if you want to stick to your rights and freedom then you have to expect that you probably are not safe anymore as some will use the vulnerability of the freedom and rights you have to reduce your security.
jayb
with all due respect. your trading rights for security thesis doesn't hold.
US, suffered 3,500 deaths from terror attacks 9/11/01 thru' today. to secure this "security", we supposedly made all these laws to allow government spying on us.
during the same time, there were over 360,000 deaths from random gun violence among our own citizens. to this, we did nothing. today, in ALL 50 states, you can purchase a gun without showing your ID. (to those who do not know, in US, you are not required to carry any ID except driving a vehicle. police cannot spot check citizens for ID even proof of citizenship. SCOTUS has ruled on this).
you have no "security" when over 30,000 deaths every year from random gun violence and nothing will be done about it (due to 2nd Amendment).
trading rights for security? helllllooooooo!!!!???? -:)
 
 
 
 
 

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