After the bloodshed of the Arab spring, where now?
The old order has come crashing down across the Middle East, but Egypt's unfolding tragedy is a cruel example of the void left in its wake
In Libya, armed militias have filled a void left by a revolution that felled a dictator. In Syria, a popular uprising has morphed into a civil war that has left more than 100,000 dead and provided a haven for Islamic extremists. In Tunisia, increasingly bitter political divisions have delayed the drafting of a new constitution.
And now in Egypt, often considered the trendsetter of the Arab world, the army and security forces, after having toppled the elected Islamist president, have killed hundreds of his supporters, declared a state of emergency and worsened a deep polarisation.
It is clear the old status quo, dominated by imperious rulers who fixed elections, ruled by fiat and quashed dissent, has been overthrown in the three years since the outbreak of the uprisings optimistically known as the Arab spring. That was amply illustrated on Wednesday in Egypt, where a reversion to the repressive tactics of the past was met with deep outrage by Islamist protesters who had tasted empowerment. What is unclear is the replacement model.
"The old regional order has gone, the new regional order is being drawn in blood, and it is going to take a long time," said Sarkis Naoum, a political analyst at Lebanon's An Nahar newspaper.
"All the people in those countries lived under similar suppression despite the differences in their regimes, so the uprisings were contagious. But nobody in Syria, Libya, Egypt or Tunisia who wanted to get rid of the regime was prepared for what came next."