Republicans' big shutdown gamble to target Obamacare

Republicans are taking a big political risk if the government shutdown persists.

Polls are emphatic - people hate this shutdown. They blame Republicans more than Democrats. And Republicans remain divided about how to proceed, a schism that has already triggered some ugly partisan primary fights for next year's midterm congressional elections.

Republicans still have some important advantages, enough so that analysts predict they will hold on to their House of Representatives majority and have a decent shot to control the Senate. But those forecasts could change if the partial closures that began on Tuesday drag on.

For now, damage to Republicans is cushioned by the protection incumbents enjoy, thanks to a political system rigged to protect them. Congressional districts are carefully drawn for the benefit of current officeholders, and in recent years, Republicans have been in charge of drawing a lot of them. Incumbents also prosper from an ability to amass huge campaign treasuries.

What threatens Republicans most is a party split over how to manage this drama. While Republicans are unified in their disdain for the Affordable Care Act, or Obamacare, they disagree sharply on strategy.

One group, backed by "tea party" activists, continues to want any move to keep the government open contingent on a delay or dilution of Obamacare. The other, usually veteran lawmakers or those from swing districts, would rather debate the issue at another time and keep the government open.