Russia facing 'second Chechnya' if its military invades Crimea, expert says
Invading Ukrainian region would be nightmare for Moscow's forces, say experts, with national pride at stake and native Tatars' hatred of Russia
Although Ukraine has a military force capable of making Russia think twice about invasion, it has a relatively light presence in the Crimea. Russia, by contrast, has for historical reasons a huge presence on the peninsula, its Black Sea fleet based in Sevastopol.
"It is a nightmare for everyone," said Igor Sutyagin, a Russian military expert. "The entry of Russian troops would be a deep humiliation for Ukraine … It would be a second Chechnya."
Russia has an overall military force of about 845,000 troops against Ukraine's 130,000. Russia's military spending is also vastly greater than Ukraine's, US$40.7 billion last year compared with US$1.4 billion. But the Ukrainian forces are still formidable and better trained, engaged over the past decade in international peacekeeping missions and having established close contacts with Western counterparts.
Brigadier Ben Barry, a specialist on land warfare at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said: "If there was ever military confrontation, the question is how much the morale and fighting power of the Ukrainian forces would be boosted by fighting for their country."
The small armed groups that surrounded two Crimean airports late last week had no markings on their uniforms. Moscow denied responsibility but Kiev claimed the armed group at the Belbek airport, which is used by the Ukrainian Air Force and is close to Sevastopol, was made up of Russian marines.
Barry said what was striking about the forces at the airport was that they did not look like a newly formed militia. "This is not a ragtag force. When you see a new militia, they will have a jumble-sale look. This lot are uniformly dressed and equipped and seem competent and efficient."