Criminal drones, corporate armies: Think tank looks to security's future
The future of security involves cheaper technology and a lessening of the sense of national identity, a British think tank predicts
The Guardian in London
Large multinational corporations could develop their own highly capable security forces. Criminals and terrorists will have access to increasingly cheap unmanned drones and space satellites. Sophisticated environmental warfare will spread plant and human diseases through insects.
These are among an array of dire warnings spelt out in a recent study by a British Ministry of Defence think tank exploring potential new threats to security that might emerge by the middle of the century.
The study, Global Strategic Trends Out to 2045, contains fresh warnings about the effects of climate change, the growth of sprawling urban centres and pressure on natural resources, notably water. It paints a picture of a world in which the authority of states diminishes in the face of multinational companies, and national loyalties are weakened by increasing migration.
Rear Admiral John Kingwell, director of the MoD's Concepts and Doctrine Centre, which carried out the study, said it did not seek to predict the future and did not reflect official government policy. However, he said it described plausible outcomes on the basis of rigorous analysis of existing trends.
"The pace and breadth of technological advancements will change our perception of our role in the workplace, reveal new opportunities for health advances, and facilitate the deepening of global communications," Kingwell said.
"But as access to technology increases, we will face new risks. In the West in particular, a rise of individualism and ... a growing sense of disconnection from long-established governing structures will challenge traditional systems."
The study says that by 2045:
- The world population could reach 10.4 billion, compared with about 7.2 billion at present;
- More than 70 per cent of the population is likely to live in urban areas;
- 3.9 billion people are likely to suffer water shortages;
- Driverless transport is likely to be widespread;
- Unmanned systems will increasingly replace people in the workplace, leading to mass unemployment and social unrest;
- Robots may transform warfare, but "military decision-making is likely to remain the remit of humans for ethical reasons, at least in Western countries";
- Individuals may define themselves less by their nationality, with growing migration and stronger links to virtual communities; and
- Chinese defence expenditure is likely to rival that of the US, but Russia's will not match that of China, the US or India.
The study says the influence of non-state actors such as multinational corporations is likely to increase at the expense of nation states, and private companies may develop "highly capable security forces".
Cheaper and more sophisticated drones will mean criminal and terrorist groups are likely to find it easier to "gain, hold and use unmanned capabilities".
Internal terrorist threats will likely continue in the Middle East and north Africa, while alternative currencies may make it easier for criminals and terrorist groups to transfer funds between jurisdictions, and low-cost DNA sequencing may make targeting individuals easier, the study says.