Militant jihadist group Islamic State is not an unstoppable juggernaut
Islamic State (IS) has been described as a fearsome jihadist outfit, a global menace outweighing al-Qaeda. But while IS has seized parts of Iraq and Syria, it is no unstoppable juggernaut.
Islamic State (IS) has been described as a fearsome jihadist outfit, a global menace outweighing al-Qaeda.
But while IS has seized parts of Iraq and Syria, it is no unstoppable juggernaut. Lacking the major weaponry of an established military, it wields outsize influence through the fanaticism of a core of several thousand, capitalising on divisions among its rivals, and disseminating terrifying videos on social media.
US President Barack Obama, in outlining plans for an expanded military and political effort to combat the group in Syria and Iraq, ushered in what will likely be a long-term engagement by the US and its allies to destroy the militants in those countries.
It is useful to remember, though, that while it is a formidable force that controls roughly a third of Iraq and Syria, there also has been an inclination to exaggerate the group's capabilities.
"I think sometimes there's been a tendency to sort of overestimate the technical sophistication of the Islamic State," said Charles Lister, visiting fellow at the Brookings Doha Centre.
Lister, like many analysts, said much of the power of IS lies in its centralisation of command and its members' intense loyalty.
That distinguishes the group from others, which are overstretched by years of conflict. In the case of the Syrian rebels, deep divisions hamper their cause.
IS militants have waged an aggressive social media campaign. They have released statements with detailed information on conquests and battles, and posted high-quality videos that often provide visual proof of their activities in regions that have suffered a media vacuum as the risks become too great for journalists.
In Syria, two American journalists were beheaded by the group in the past month. The killings, posted on militant websites, were shot in high definition, featured embedded sound bites from Obama, and used wireless microphones to amplify statements from the masked, English-speaking militant and his victims.
According to a senior Iraqi intelligence official, more than 27,600 IS fighters are believed to be operating in Iraq, about 2,600 of whom are foreigners. Most analysts, however, estimate the number of IS fighters in both Iraq and Syria to be about 20,000.
In any case, the group is dwarfed by its foes in the Syrian and Iraqi armies - both in numbers and firepower.
The Iraqi military and police force are estimated at more than one million. The Syrian army is estimated at 300,000 soldiers. There are believed to be more than 100,000 Syrian rebels, including the al-Qaeda-linked Nusra Front and the powerful Islamic Front rebel umbrella group, now fighting IS in Syria. Tens of thousands of Kurdish peshmerga forces are fighting the group in Iraq.
The group's greatest shortcoming is that it lacks effective means to fight airpower, meaning that US air strikes can go a long way in destroying its capabilities. Still, IS has amassed a significant amount of weapons and hardware captured from Iraqi and Syrian military installations in recent months.
