Coffee catastrophe percolating as climate change threatens arabica plant
Rising temperatures pose serious threat to global coffee market, potentially affecting livelihoods of farmers and pushing up prices
Cultivation of the arabica coffee plant, staple of daily caffeine fixes and economic lifeline for millions of small farmers, is under threat from climate change as the rising temperatures and new rainfall patterns limit the areas where it can be grown, researchers have warned.
Arabica, which has long been prized for its delicate and aromatic flavour, accounts for 70 per cent of the global coffee market share. But it is particularly sensitive to temperature increases, which reduce its growth, flowering and fruiting and make it more susceptible to coffee pests.
With global temperatures forecast to increase by 2-2.5 Celsius over the next few decades, a report predicts some of the major coffee-producing countries will suffer serious losses, reducing supplies and driving up prices.
The joint study, published by the International Centre for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) under the CGIAR Research Programme on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), models the global suitability of arabica cultivation to see how production will be affected in 2050.
It predicts that Brazil, Vietnam , Indonesia and Colombia - which between them produce 65 per cent of the global market share of arabica - will find themselves experiencing severe losses unless steps are taken to change the genetics of the crops as well as the manner and areas in which it is grown.
Dr Peter Läderach, a CCAFS climate change specialist and co-author of the report, said although some countries would be able to mitigate the "massive impact" of climate change by simply moving their coffee to higher, cooler areas, it was not an option for everyone.
"If you look at the countries that will lose out most, they're countries like El Salvador, Nicaragua and Honduras, which have steep hills and volcanoes," Läderach, said. "As you move up, there's less and less area. But if you look at some South American or east African countries, you have plateaus and a lot of areas at higher altitudes, so they will lose much less."