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Analysis | Erdogan’s referendum win heralds huge changes in Turkey, but will narrow margin humble him?

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A handout photo made available by the Turkish President Press office shows President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and wife Emine waving to supporters during a rally in front of the presidential residence in Istanbul on Sunday. Photo: EPA
The Washington Post

On Sunday evening in Ankara, Turkish Prime Minister Binali Yildirim stood on the balcony at the headquarters of his Justice and Development Party, or AKP, and hailed an election victory that will put him out of a job.

The “Yes” camp in Turkey’s referendum, led by Yildirim’s boss, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, appeared to win a slender victory over the “No” vote, getting about 51 per cent of the vote. Turks approved constitutional amendments that would scrap the country’s parliamentary system, including the office of the prime minister, in favour of a presidency with expanded powers.

“There is no loser in this referendum, but only one winner: Turkey and its noble Turkish people,” said Yildirim.

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But the tiny margin of victory and the howls of protests from the opposition tell a different story. Two main opposition parties refused to concede defeat, demanding a recount after serious reports of voter fraud emerged. Despite the many flaws in Turkey’s democracy, its recent elections have been mostly fair. But that wasn’t the impression on Sunday night, with the opposition pointing to reports of fraudulent ballots and the erratic behavior of the country’s election commission.

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“Up until today, Turkey’s opposition always thought that it lost fair and square,” said Selim Sazak, a fellow at the Delma Institute. “This, however, is a game-changer.”
A handout photo made available by Turkish President Press office Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan waving to supporters during a rally in front of the residence in Istanbul on Sunday. Photo: EPA
A handout photo made available by Turkish President Press office Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan waving to supporters during a rally in front of the residence in Istanbul on Sunday. Photo: EPA
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