Brimming with confidence over Syrian foray, Putin is now betting on a strongman in Libya

Flush with success in supporting his ally in Syria, Vladimir Putin has a new ambition: supporting another one, this time in Libya. The effort is beginning to undermine the UN-backed government there.

Russian President Putin’s government is befriending a powerful military leader, Khalifa Haftar, who now controls more territory than any other faction in the tumultuous, oil-rich North African state. In two visits to Moscow in the past half-year, Haftar met the defence and foreign ministers, plus the national-security chief, to seek support. A top ally also visited last week and Russia is supplying funds and military expertise to Haftar’s base in the east.

“The longer we wait, the more likely it becomes that Haftar wins,” said Riccardo Fabiani, a senior Middle East and North Africa analyst at Eurasia Group in London. “It’s clear he’s getting military, financial and diplomatic support.”

By backing Haftar in his standoff with the government of Prime Minister Fayez al-Serraj in the west, Russia could bolster its role in the region and secure billions of dollars from Libya in arms and other contracts. At the same time, it also risks igniting more conflict in the divided country, where forces loyal to Haftar, as well as rival armed groups, are accused by the UN of human-rights abuses including torture and extra-judicial killings.

Other players also support Haftar, though he’s opposed by powerful militias mostly across central and western Libya, where 70 per cent of the population lives. Among his allies: the United Arab Emirates and Egypt, whose ex-army chief president, Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi, has close ties to the Kremlin. Putin branded the Nato-led campaign that overthrew Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi as a “crusade.” 

Russia lost at least US$4 billion in arms deals and billions of dollars more in energy and transport contracts after Gaddafi was ousted and killed, according to government and state-company officials.