Why Hillary Clinton’s wavering on TPP could be nail in the coffin of Barack Obama’s ‘Asian pivot’
Clinton championed TPP as a “gold standard” agreement when she served as secretary of state but has since opposed the deal.
Hillary Clinton was the first standard-bearer for the Obama administration’s strategic push into Asia, but her opposition to the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal could be a major obstacle to sustaining it should she win the presidency.
The TPP has been the main economic plank of President Barack Obama’s seven-year effort to intensify engagement with a fast-growing region and counter China’s rising clout with nations that count it as their principal trading partner.
Clinton championed TPP as a “gold standard” agreement when she served as secretary of state during Obama’s first term. But as the front-running Democratic presidential candidate, she has opposed the deal signed in February because of its potential impact on US workers – organised labour being a core constituency of the Democrat Party.
There are always opportunities to adjust on the margins
Leading Republican candidate Donald Trump, who also advocates a remake of Washington policies for dealing with allies Japan and South Korea and strategic rival China, has decried TPP as a “disaster”. Clinton’s rival for the Democratic nomination, Bernie Sanders, also staunchly opposes the pact.
Clinton’s campaign won’t say whether she would seek to renegotiate it with the 11 other TPP nations that have faced their own political challenges in selling it at home. The agreement has not yet been ratified by Congress.
Laura Rosenberger, foreign policy adviser for the Clinton campaign, said Clinton still supports the goal of a TPP that advances US interests in the region. However, she said, the pact in its current form doesn’t meet three conditions needed for a trade deal: to create good jobs in the US, raise wages at home, and advance US national security.
Kurt Campbell, who was Clinton’s top lieutenant on East Asia at the State Department and is now advising her campaign, describes TPP as a “strategic commitment” to engage in Asia. The 12 participating nations account for about 40 per cent of global GDP, and other Asian nations are interested in joining.
Campbell said that a full-scale renegotiation would be “very difficult”, but that adjustments could make it more politically palatable in the US