image

CNBC

Trump could reverse globalisation, say experts

'If elected, he has the power to reverse the system by which the world is secure,' says global strategist

PUBLISHED : Tuesday, 02 August, 2016, 7:59pm
UPDATED : Wednesday, 03 August, 2016, 12:00pm

If given the keys to the White House, Donald Trump's policy on trade deals and global relationships could turn the tide of globalisation, according to one investment strategist.

When accepting his official nomination as the Republican candidate to be the next US president, the billionaire businessman said "Americanism not globalisation will be our credo" adding "We (the US) will never-ever sign bad trade deals."

This followed earlier statements in which Trump took aim at globalisation blaming it for "wiping out the US middle class".

David Roche, president and global strategist at Independent Strategy said a Trump presidency holds real risk for markets.

"He could reverse globalisation which is part of the bedrock of financial market returns because it speaks directly to how equities will operate," he said.

"You go for instance from buying global brands to local subsidised players."

Roche said political events are becoming more of a risk factor on the upside and the downside for equities.

In terms of supporting equity markets, Peter Oppenheimer, chief global equities strategist at Goldman Sachs, says that both Trump and Clinton could provide some benefit.

"As you move toward the US election you are going to see more uncertainty again. The one potential for support is that both are more likely to increase fiscal spending," he said.

 

In a June speech Trump singled out China, accusing the country of carrying out "outrageous theft of intellectual property" as well as criticising alleged currency manipulation and product dumping.

The Republican nominee went on to portray Hillary Clinton as someone who "worships globalism over Americanism' and said supporting free trade deals such as the TTIP (Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership) would end US manufacturing.

Roche believes that sort of isolationist rhetoric suggests that the populist Trump wants to end the US reputation as a global policeman.

"I think the dangers of Trump is that he has, if elected, he has the power to reverse the system by which the world is secure, the US security umbrella," he added.