‘There is a tipping point’: UN warns climate change goals laid out in Paris accord are almost out of reach
Rising seas threaten the existence of small island states and could displace tens of millions in Bangladesh, Vietnam and other countries with densely populated river deltas
The Paris Agreement goal of capping global warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius will slip beyond reach unless nations act now to slash carbon pollution, curb energy demand, and suck CO2 from the air, according to a draft UN report.
Without such efforts, “holding warming to 1.5C (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) by the end of the 21st Century [is] extremely unlikely,” said the 1,000-page report, prepared by hundreds of scientists.
“There is a very high risk that under current emissions trajectories, and current national pledges, global warming will exceed 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.”
On current trends, Earth’s thermometer will cross that threshold in the 2040s, said the report.
The greenhouse gas emissions guaranteeing that outcome will have been released within 10 to 15 years.
Under any scenario, there is no model that projects a 66-per cent-or-better chance of holding global warming below 1.5C, the synthesis of recent scientific studies concluded.