Analysis | It looks like Canada’s love affair with Justin Trudeau is over, as Conservatives pull ahead in polls

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau no longer looks invincible.

After showing a steady lead in public opinion surveys for more than two years after his surprise October 2015 election victory, Trudeau appears to be politically vulnerable. And that is despite a buoyant economy, what’s seen as a steady hand in Nafta trade talks with President Trump, and a weak political opposition.

“All of a sudden, we saw this drop,” said David Coletto, chief executive of Abacus Data, an Ottawa polling firm, referring to his company’s latest poll, completed in early March. “It’s the first time since Trudeau became prime minister that we have results showing the Conservatives slightly ahead.”

CBC’s Poll Tracker, which aggregates and weights the results of a dozen opinion surveys, reported in late March that the opposition Conservative Party is now well in the lead at 37.7 per cent of voting intentions compared with Trudeau’s Liberals at 33.7 per cent. The left-of-centre New Democratic Party was third at 18.5 per cent.

Some observers say it’s just a question of midterm blues, with a Canadian election not scheduled until the fall of 2019. But the real culprit seems to have been Trudeau’s visit to India in February. During the week-long trip, Trudeau was widely mocked for wearing traditional Indian garb as he crossed India with his wife and three children.

For voters who had welcomed Trudeau’s global status as a progressive political leader and proud international standard-bearer for Canada, the images of Trudeau in brash Bollywood outfits at well-known sightseeing spots were a serious comedown.