OpinionJiang outmanoeuvres Hu again to sway Standing Committee line-up
The 87-year-old former leader has emerged from a series of secret backroom dealings to push his supporters, and his influence, to the forefront
About five years ago, when incumbent and retired Chinese leaders began discussing the line-up of the new Politburo Standing Committee ahead of the Communist Party's 17th national congress, there was intense speculation that President Hu Jintao was manoeuvring to promote his protégé, Li Keqiang, not only as a new member of the committee, but also as his successor.
At that point, Hu's supporters believed that he, after five years in office, had built up enough power and allies to pull off such a move.
That optimism, however, was short-lived. Jiang Zemin, Hu's predecessor, teamed up with then-vice-president Zeng Qinghong and other retired leaders to orchestrate a series of last-minute backroom dealings in which they succeeded in installing Xi Jinping as the heir apparent.
Now, five years later, as Hu's retirement nears and the 18th party congress is underway to approve a new leadership line-up, there is a sense of déjà vu. Jiang, 86, returned to the forefront of high-level politics in the run-up to the congress, and he appears to have outmanoeuvred Hu again, with Jiang's supporters expected to dominate the new Politburo Standing Committee to be unveiled on Thursday.
When the seven new members walk from behind the curtains into the media limelight in the Great Hall of the People, at least five of them are expected to be Jiang's allies, including Xi.
The line-up is expected to contain several surprises. One is that two of Hu's strong supporters, who were until recently considered strong bets for the commission, will be missing. They are Wang Yang, the party secretary of Guangdong, and Li Yuanchao, the head of the party's powerful Organisation Department, responsible for personnel appointments.