You Bet | Merry Christmas looms for Manchester United

Being top of the English Premier League at Christmas used to be seen as something of a curse, but Manchester United can draw strength from the recent trend of title-winning sides establishing an early lead and holding on to it.

The trend really started with the Chelsea teams managed by Jose Mourinho, who ignored the conventional wisdom that the championship race was a marathon and not a sprint. He made sure Chelsea were fast out of the blocks and did not ease off the pace - a tactic he also employed at Real Madrid to challenge Barcelona and finally take the Spanish title off them last season.

Starting with Chelsea's two wins under Mourinho, the Christmas leaders have won six of the past eight titles - the two exceptions came when the lead was only a point at Christmas and you have to go back to 2002-03 to find the last time the Christmas leaders had an advantage of two points or more and failed to take the title.

Those stats are all in United's favour, although the notion that they are top because they have improved this season is a fallacy. Their total of 42 points from the opening 17 games is exactly the same as their Christmas position last season - the difference is that Manchester City had 44 points then and only 36 now.

The title race may well hinge on whether City can improve in the second half of the season, as they must in order to make up the eight-point shortfall compared with the same stage last season. City and United finished level on 89 points last season - which represented a decline in standards for both teams in the second half of the season.

If that happens to United again, City will win by a point if they can match the level of form they showed in the first four months of last season. But if United can maintain their current level, they will reach a final total of 94 points, which will be extremely hard for City to match. The title is United's to lose.