You Bet | Perfect storm unlikely to strike for underdogs in FA Cup
Little danger of giant-killing acts so the big four appear certain to march on in FA Cup
The FA Cup fourth round brought some life to the famous old competition but it hasn't altered the reality. We're still on course for another triumph for one of the big six at Wembley in May, even if the six have been cut to four.
Tottenham and Liverpool both exited in the previous round, beaten away by lower-league opponents, but the two Manchester clubs, Chelsea and Arsenal are still standing and they all have home matches this weekend at very short odds.
The problem for any other club with ambitions of winning the trophy - even for Everton, the best team in the Premier League outside the big six - is that it requires almost a perfect storm of calamities to befall the big six. That's what happened in 2008, when Portsmouth won the cup, but a repeat of that situation seems unlikely this year. Four of the big six were left at this stage five years ago, but Manchester United were about to knock out Arsenal and Liverpool would suffer an almighty upset at home to Barnsley. In the quarter-finals, Barnsley repeated their giant-killing feat with a home victory over Chelsea and Portsmouth won at United, which meant all six were out.
That may have been a once-in-30-years occurrence and, the longer the big six remain in the competition, the more the odds multiply in their favour. There seems little danger of any knockouts this weekend, despite the continuing poor form of Chelsea and the failure of Manchester City to reach last season's heights.
Chelsea were given a scare away to Brentford, but the fourth-round replay at Stamford Bridge should be more straightforward. The hope for Brentford is they might be able to play on the discontent surrounding their opponents - as QPR and Swansea did when winning at Stamford Bridge early in January - but the fact that this is the last domestic trophy-winning avenue open to Chelsea should concentrate minds.
Most of Chelsea's wins this season have been by decisive margins - 15 out of 22 by at least two goals - and that points to Chelsea on the handicap and over 2.5 goals as the best bets.