FA Cup final win for Manchester City against Wigan Athletic looks safe bet
Low-scoring wins to nil offer best chances of returns, goalless or with one-goal lead at HT
The first rule of the FA Cup final is that the favourite wins, especially if that team are from the Premier League's big six and are playing an opponent from outside that group.
That is exactly the scenario tonight when Manchester City - now firmly established as a leading member of the big six - face Wigan, who might not be a Premier League club for much longer. Form and the statistics of past finals point to victory for City, although with the caveat that it might not come easy.
The weight of history is against Wigan. Since the last old-fashioned giant-killing (second division West Ham beating Arsenal from the first in 1980), the higher-placed team in the league structure has lifted the trophy 24 times out of 32 (75 per cent), although in 90 minutes, the draw rate has been high at 38 per cent (the statistics for higher-placed teams are won 17, drawn 12, lost three).
In the Premier League era, the higher-placed team has done even better, taking the trophy in 16 out of 20 finals, with a 90-minute record of won 14, drawn four, lost two.
The last time the cup was snatched away from a big-six team in the final was in 1995, when Everton beat Manchester United 1-0. Since then, big-six sides have won 10 finals against teams from outside that group - including City's 1-0 victory over Stoke two years ago.
Nine of those 10 wins have come in 90-minute play - the exception being the 2006 thriller that ended 3-3 before Liverpool beat West Ham on penalties. That was very much an exceptional final - the highest-scoring in 90-minute play since the famous Stanley Matthews final of 1953 - and the general trend is for low-scoring finals, often won to nil.
Of the last 10 finals won by a big-six team against a lesser side, eight have been won to nil and seven had under 2.5 goals. Those figures point to a 1-0 or 2-0 win for City as the most likely outcome, as does Roberto Mancini's record against Wigan - he has won all seven meetings with Roberto Martinez's Wigan since he took charge at City and all seven wins have been to nil (five of them 1-0 or 2-0).