Monitor | What Shanghai's brand new free-trade zone won't offer
While we're left guessing on what will be allowed, there won't be interest rates set by market and free flows of capital – at least at the same time
A day after the official launch of Shanghai's new free-trade zone we know little more about the project than we did a week before.
Despite the State Council's publication last week of a list of 18 business sectors that will enjoy regulatory dispensations in the new zone, the official statements released so far remain remarkably short on hard detail.
So with speculation raging undiminished, it's probably worth reminding ourselves about a few of the things the mainland authorities are not about to allow in their new laboratory of liberalisation.
In particular, there are two things we are not likely to see, and certainly won't see together: market-determined interest rates, and free flows of capital.
At first glance, that seems to contradict everything we have heard about Shanghai's free-trade zone. In the last few weeks finance sector analysts by the dozen have put out research notes forecasting interest rate and capital account deregulation.
And on Friday, the mainland government itself promised "interest rate liberalisation" and cross-border currency flows.