Explainer | Why are there protests in Thailand and what will happen next?
- Youth-led pro-democracy protesters want a new constitution, limits on the monarchy and the end of Prayuth Chan-ocha’s military-backed government
- Celebrities, red shirts, the Milk Tea Alliance and Hong Kong’s Joshua Wong are among their backers. Still, it’s a big ask in a land with a history of crackdowns
Various proposals to amend the constitution have been submitted to the Thai parliament, but these have been delayed by royalist factions and the military-dominated Senate, further fuelling the turmoil on the streets.
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Thailand arrests at least 8 activists in latest crackdown on anti-government protests
1. WHO ARE THE PROTESTERS AND WHAT DO THEY WANT?
The protests, which began in July when Thailand emerged from its three-month Covid-19 lockdown, have largely been led by university and high school students known collectively as the “Free Youth Movement”.
Demonstrations have been held in schools and universities across Thailand demanding a new constitution, the dissolution of parliament and an end to the harassment of government critics and opponents.
A key early date was August 10 when, at a university campus outside Bangkok, a group of students led by Thammasat University student Panusaya “Rung” Sithijirawattanakul presented “10 demands” to reform the monarchy.
Included in the demands were revoking the king’s legal immunity, increasing public scrutiny of the king’s assets and curbing the palace’s involvement in politics by preventing him from expressing political opinions and endorsing coups.
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Thailand prime minister warns of national ‘collapse’ if protests keep rattling the country
Calls to reform the monarchy were also a key feature of a major rally in Bangkok in September, when protesters replaced a plaque honouring the Khana Ratsadon (Peoples’ Party) – the group that led the 1932 revolution which proclaimed the end of Thailand’s absolute monarchy. The original plaque had disappeared in mysterious circumstances in April 2017, with many Thais suspecting official involvement.
2. WHO SUPPORTS THE PROTESTS?
Thais of all ages have turned out in droves at every major demonstration since August, although most are under the age of 40.
Various public figures and celebrities have joined the cause too. Over the past week, bloggers, live-streamers and YouTubers have been raising money to keep the activism going and to help pay the bail for arrested activists. A Thai fan group of South Korean girl group Girls’ Generation, under the Twitter account @WithSNSD_TH, said it raised more than 779,000 baht (US$24,946) in just two days, while Thai beauty blogger Nutt Nisamanee transferred 50,000 baht to actor Intira Jaroenpura to help her support the protests in terms of logistics including getting helmets for protesters.
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Thailand’s anti-government student protesters connect with 1976 Thammasat University massacre
3. HOW HAVE THINGS ESCALATED?
In late September, the protesters campaigned for people to withdraw money from Siam Commercial Bank, where the king is the biggest stakeholder.
Weeks later, German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas told parliament: “We have made it clear that politics concerning Thailand should not be conducted from German soil” and “if there are guests in our country that conduct their state business from our soil we would always want to act to counteract that”.
These developments appear to have encouraged the movement and demonstrations have grown in size, piling further pressure on Prayuth’s government.
On October 14, the protesters had planned to demonstrate overnight in front of Government House but were dispersed the next morning following tensions with royalist groups gathered nearby earlier in the day.
Two activists were later charged with carrying out a harmful act towards the queen, an offence that carries a possible punishment of life imprisonment.
However, the next day some 15,000 people gathered at the Ratchaprasong shopping district in Bangkok in a defiant show of force.
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Thousands defy gathering ban to attend pro-democracy protest in Thailand
4. HOW HAS THE THAI GOVERNMENT REACTED?
On October 16, Prayuth responded to demands for his resignation by asking, “What have I done?” while insisting that the State of Emergency was needed to keep order.
King Maha Vajiralongkorn, who reportedly returned from his Alpine hotel in Bavaria, Germany, where he quarantined throughout the pandemic, in early October to perform the Buddhist Kathin ceremony has made no public mention of the protests.
However, on October 15, the king, who was visiting the country’s northeast with Queen Suthida, met former communists and said the country needed those who loved their nation and the monarchy. Vajiralongkorn took part in the military operations against the communist insurgency in the rural parts of Thailand in the 1970s.
The Thai stock market slumped on Monday as a result of the political gridlock, a trend which has continued as investors pull out funds in response to the growing political uncertainty.
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Thailand anti-government protests continue for fifth day as demonstrations stretch beyond Bangkok
5. WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?
Prajak Kongkirati, a political science scholar at Thammasat University, in an interview with BBC Thai this month, said an ideological gap now permeated all layers of society.
“The students have laid their cards on the table and it depends on how the elites respond,” he said. “I think the elites are too confident of their ability to rule and that they believe they don’t have to make any adjustment.”
This sets the stage for an impasse. In recent weeks the military-dominated Senate and royalist groups have both attempted to block proposals in parliament to revise the constitution.
To buy time, the Thai government has formed an ad hoc parliamentary committee to study six proposed bills concerning constitutional change for a period of thirty days.
“General Prayuth’s passive strategy of avoiding the political fray and leaving the ruling coalition to contend with the parliamentary opposition and the senators appears ineffective,” wrote Termsak Chalermpalanupap, visiting fellow, ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute this month. “The prime minister’s inability to silence mounting calls for reform of the monarchy inadvertently makes him appear a disloyal failure to royalists.”
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Thailand suspends TV station over protest coverage
House Speaker Chuan Leekpai is seeking to open an extraordinary parliamentary session this week to discuss the crisis.