Why Trump’s Pentagon reshuffle is unlikely to raise the China war risk
- US military chiefs have played down the threat of radical action with China and many think the reshuffle is to fulfil Trump’s vow to bring troops in Afghanistan home by Christmas
- China is also unlikely to rise to provocations, and will probably wait out Trump’s term to assess Biden’s policies
With China increasingly nationalistic, any loss of face (and resultant loss of respect for its leadership) could cross a red line and provoke a response. One example would be a confrontation with the US military that ends up forcing a public climbdown by China’s military.
The US has been inching closer to such red lines with its increased freedom of navigation operations challenging Chinese claims in the South China Sea.
10:22
Why has the relationship between the Chinese mainland and Taiwan taken a turn for the worse?
It is hard to imagine the situation becoming much worse – unless a red line is actually crossed. The good news is that the situation is likely to be constrained before it reaches a tipping point.
First, the Trump administration has only two months or so left. While that is sufficient time to do serious damage, sensible Congressional overseers and senior professional military officers would hopefully seek to de-escalate any effort to provoke China.
01:14
President-elect Joe Biden says nothing will stop transfer of power
He has assured his joint chiefs and combat commanders that there would be no radical changes, which in any case goes against the Pentagon’s DNA of thorough planning and internal checks and balances.
More importantly, Trump, reluctant to launch offensive military operations in his remaining time in office, has told Miller not to do anything new or provocative, according to a source cited by The New York Times. Miller reportedly also told senior Pentagon staff not to expect significant changes at this time.
Second, Miller’s overseas experience is in special operations and counterterrorism in the Middle East, especially Afghanistan and Iraq. While he and the incoming team are certainly “hawks”, most are Middle East specialists with little or no experience on China and Southeast or East Asia.
02:29
US, Taliban sign historic peace deal to end war in Afghanistan and withdraw US troops
Pompeo’s last-minute decision to visit Vietnam followed by the just-announced visit by National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien indicate that something may be up. One can only hope Vietnam is smart enough not to get caught up in some last-gasp US cabal to confront China.
Also working against a radical act is renewed military-to-military communications. As defence secretary, Esper reportedly reached out to China’s military leaders to deny media reports that the US was considering a drone strike on China’s occupied reefs, adding that the US has no intention of creating a military crisis with the Chinese.
The virtual discussion between military leaders took place late last month, was followed by a second in mid-November, with a third on maritime security scheduled before the end of the year. The renewed communication is a sign that neither side wants unnecessary military provocation.
The US is more likely to be inwardly focused for the next few months at least, and China is likely to give it time to sort out its positions. There is no need to panic – at least not yet. This “massacre” at the Pentagon is more likely a Trump personal vendetta than a considered statement of policy change.
Mark J. Valencia is an adjunct senior scholar at the National Institute for South China Sea Studies, Haikou, China