Can Japan afford Suga’s military spending promise to Biden?

Prior to Suga’s trip to the US, Tokyo had already approved a record US$51 billion defence budget to buy stealth fighters, missile systems and warships
Any further spending will be difficult in a stalling, Covid-hit economy, analysts say, even though the public is wary of China’s growing clout

Japan

Julian Ryall

Published: 5:30pm, 19 Apr 2021

Why you can trust SCMP

Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga agreed to upgrade Japan’s military capabilities during discussions with US President Joe Biden in Washington on Friday, although analysts point out that Tokyo has already committed itself to a number of “big ticket” military projects and may not be able to afford a bigger defence spending spree.

Japan’s commitment was outlined in the joint statement issued after the two leaders’ meeting in the United States and was designed to demonstrate their shared determination to stand firm in the face of growing Chinese aggression in the Indo-Pacific region.

In late December, the Japanese government approved a record defence budget amounting to 5.34 trillion yen (US$51.7 billion) for financial year 2021, which included the purchase of new stealth fighter jets, enhanced missile defence systems and more warships.

Analysts said this increase might already have been factored into Suga’s promise of greater spending.

“It would be difficult to have a dramatic increase in the defence budget, in large part due to the current economic situation in Japan because of the impact of the coronavirus pandemic,” a Ministry of Defence analyst said.

Japanese F-15J Eagle fighter aircraft at Chitose Air Base in Hokkaido prefecture. Photo: AFP

“On the other hand,” he added, “There is growing support for greater defence outlays from a public that is increasingly worried about the assertiveness of China.”

The official, who declined to be named, pointed out that Japan had announced the purchase or development of a number of advanced weapons systems in recent years.

Tokyo has agreed to purchase 105 state-of-the-art F-35 joint strike fighters, including 42 of the F-35B variant, which is capable of vertical take-off and landing and is designed to operate from aircraft carriers. Each of the jets costs 13 billion yen and Japanese pilots are presently training on the first batch that have been delivered.

Biden, Suga call for ‘peace, stability’ across Taiwan Strait

Similarly, the Maritime Self-Defence Force’s two Izumo-class helicopter destroyers are to be upgraded into aircraft carriers, each capable of carrying 12 F-34B fighters, while a new Amphibious Rapid Deployment Brigade, based on the US Marine Corps, was set up in 2018 and is headquartered in Sasebo, Nagasaki prefecture.

Previous plans to construct two Aegis Ashore anti-ballistic missile bases, to counter the threats posed by China and North Korea, were scrapped due to objections by local people - concerned that components of the missiles would fall on local properties and that the bases and surrounding areas would both become a target for a pre-emptive strike - but the government has instead announced that it will build more Aegis warships to provide coverage.

Japan is also investing heavily in upgrading its anti-ship missile capabilities, with the Type 12 missile already considered more advanced than US versions and with an effective range of up to 300km. A battery of the missiles has been deployed on Miyako island, which is around 200km south of the Senkaku Islands, which China claims as the Diaoyus.

US Marines take part in joint exercises with the Japan Self-Defence Force in Eniwa, Hokkaido prefecture. Photo: AFP

And while Tokyo has taken the first steps in setting up units within the Defence Ministry in the emerging security areas of outer space and cyber warfare, the official said far more needed to be done in these areas to keep up with other nations.

Garren Mulloy, a professor of international relations at Daito Bunka University and an authority on defence issues, agreed it would be “difficult” for Japan to dramatically increase defence spending, which presently stands at around 0.95 per cent of GDP under Japan’s calculation method, but is around 1.3 per cent according to the method used by Nato member states.

“Even under [former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe], who really wanted to increase military spending, it was not possible and there are a whole range of new pressures on Japan now, from coronavirus, the economy stalling and a huge national debt,” he said.

And while advanced fighters and new warships always attract the headlines, Mulloy said Japan could do much to enhance its military capabilities by investing in other areas.

China accuses US and Japan of sowing division

“They should look more closely at spending on ISR [intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance], such as by purchasing the Global Hawk drone system, more advanced satellites and integrating this all with the US,” he said. Another area that was “less dramatic but no less important,” he said, was the creation of a unified, real-time data sharing platform across all branches of the military to ensure an integrated response.

One of the most effective – and cost-effective – ways of enhancing Japan’s military presence and commitment to the region, Mulloy said, would be through expanding its security alliances and courting additional potential allies.

Japan’s Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi and Defence Minister Nobuo Kishi attend a video conference with German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas and Defence Minister Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer. Photo: AFP

Tokyo has already been following this strategy, building on its long-standing security relationship with the US by becoming a founder member of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, or Quad, with the US, Australia and India, while stronger security relationships were being forged with Britain, France and Germany, all of which have already sent warships to the region this year or will be deploying them in the coming months.

The Defence Ministry official agreed that joining the “Five Eyes” intelligence alliance – presently made up of the US, Britain, Australia, Canada and New Zealand – was “an option” for Tokyo to explore, although Japan already receives a great deal of data from its existing alliances.

And while other countries have seen strong resistance to an increased military build-up – such as the at-times fierce South Korean backlash against the deployment of US-operated Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (THAAD) weapons systems – there is a growing acceptance among the Japanese public and political parties that Japan needs to do more to ensure its armed forces are ready and equipped to deal with whatever military contingency may crop up.