Southeast Asia nations boosting submarine orders amid US-China rivalry
- The growing acquisition of submarines by Southeast Asian countries was driven by the rivalry between the US and China, analysts said
- For many navies, the decision to purchase submarines stemmed from the belief that they might not be considered ‘proper navies’, another analyst said
Southeast Asian nations increasingly view submarine development as a necessity for their security amid changing geopolitical realities, but while some analysts say the move is “logical and necessary”, others have questioned the usefulness of the vessels due to exorbitant costs and the disadvantages of manoeuvring through regional waters.
Over the last few years, Beijing has fully militarised at least three of several islands it built in the disputed waterway.
Darmawan said it was “logical and necessary” for Southeast Asian countries to try to acquire submarines as the region lies in strategic maritime routes with heavy traffic.
It also made sense for countries to keep up with defence developments in the region, Darmawan said, and these include the presence of Unmanned Underwater Vehicles (UUV) which are often found in territorial waters and belong mainly to China and the US.
Also known as underwater drones, UUVs can operate without an occupant and can be used for a variety of tasks including scientific exploration and intelligence gathering.
“Vietnam’s six submarines would make China think twice before trying to occupy Vietnamese atolls in the South China Sea,” Storey said. “And [if] conflict were to break out, those submarines would enable the Vietnamese Navy to interdict and sink Chinese warships.”
But for others like Thailand, Storey said it was merely “a case of keeping up with the neighbours”.
While reports have surfaced that the Thai Navy is discussing with Chinese manufacturers the possibility of replacing the motor, there is also talk the contract might eventually be cancelled.
Storey said that many navies around the world want to buy submarines simply because they do not consider themselves to be “proper navies” without them.
“But submarines are among the most complex and expensive naval systems to operate, and this sometimes means navies cannot use them effectively, they become symbols of power rather than serious warfighting vessels,” he added.
“As submarines proliferate in Southeast Asia, the danger of a collision or an accident at sea increases. This is worrying as very few regional navies possess submarine rescue vessels.”
“Quantitatively, two submarines could hardly make a tactical, operational, and strategic difference, qualitatively, it must account for whether the country would fight alone or with its American ally, and mostly, who to fight,” Espeña said.
The Philippine Navy has since last year been looking for its first-ever submarine, but while the pandemic hampered the search, France has reportedly offered two of its high-performance submarines in exchange for permission to explore the Southeast Asian nation’s “sovereign waters.”
Espeña said that shallow Southeast Asian waters posed tactical and operational challenges for Southeast Asian navies, especially in preserving the vessels’ stealthiness.
“[This would] thereby affect deterrent and warfighting credibility,” he said, adding that he was “sceptical” about a few submarines’ ability to provide round-the-clock maritime domain awareness to cover the vast Southeast Asian maritime territory.
“Procuring a few submarines would not make a big difference, sustaining them would be expensive since parts maintenance, crew training, and emergency hazard measures are often challenges,” Espeña said.
Without a proper designation of enemies and where to fight them, “submarines are but expensive toys to brag with your playmates on the playground”.