Why are China, US – and other major powers – stepping up military drills with Southeast Asia?
- Experts say China is trying to position itself as an alternative security partner to the US, as it steps up ‘military diplomacy’ joint exercises
- Heightened South China Sea tensions could put pressure on Asean member states not to pursue closer defence ties with Beijing, one observer said
Fu Qianshao, a Chinese military expert cited by nationalistic tabloid Global Times, said China would continue to bolster its ties with Southeast Asian countries to build a peaceful and stable environment “at a time when the US has been stirring up troubles in the region”.
The issue is likely to come up in this weekend’s Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, which will be attended by defence honchos and policymakers with a stake in the security of the Asia-Pacific.
Paul J. Smith, a professor at the US Naval War College who spoke to This Week In Asia in a personal capacity, described the increased joint drills as attempts at returning to pre-pandemic levels of operations, which were also aimed at responding to what China perceives as the assertive actions of the US and its allies.
“The trend has grown under [Chinese President] Xi Jinping,” Smith said, noting that Beijing viewed “military diplomacy” as “a central tenet of its overall international diplomacy playbook”.
However, the value of Chinese drills with its Southeast Asian counterparts was “limited” due to their “episodic and cosmetic” nature, Smith said, adding that much also depended on the types of equipment used.
“If China deploys its less-advanced or unsophisticated platforms, it is a sign that the engagement is limited and conducted only for diplomatic or public relations purposes,” Smith said, pointing out that both “exposure” and “signalling” should not be overlooked in military diplomacy.
“Exposure” refers to the release of key data about platforms, capabilities or operational norms that would occur during the drills.
For example, if China, or any participating country, sends advanced equipment, it would be transmitting sensitive information about that platform or operational routines, and this might be intended for reasons ranging from “deterrence, diplomatic persuasion to [even] marketing for future weapons sales”, Smith said.
“Signalling” referred to intentional or inadvertent messaging regarding the purpose of the drills, whether it was to generate goodwill or “to send a message to a third country or to the international community”, Smith said, adding that China was likely to increase the frequency of such drills in the region as a way of breaking out of what it sees as US containment.
Blake Herzinger, research fellow at the University of Sydney’s United States Studies Centre, said that while China had tried to set itself up as an alternative security partner, the recent exercises did not reflect a new dynamic as countries like Cambodia and Laos “already fall more within Beijing’s orbit”.
For countries such as Singapore, Herzinger said that maintaining positive ties with China included “low-level defence engagements” which were unlikely to go further due to the island state’s “more important security relationship” with the US.
“Low-level familiarisation exercises” help build a degree of understanding between China and Southeast Asian militaries “which may help to avoid larger problems”, Herzinger said, but “no amount of confidence-building measures can counteract” China’s ongoing efforts in undermining its neighbours’ sovereignty.
French and Indonesian armies and navies conducted two separate joint exercises in March, while in 2021, French and Singaporean navies conducted an exercise in the southern reaches of the South China Sea.
Jean-Mathieu Rey, a French admiral and head of navy foreign relations, said that as “a provider of sovereignty worldwide and the oldest US ally, Paris “develops partnerships with like-minded countries” to ensure “a free and open Indo-Pacific, for multilateralism, and for the respect of international laws”.
Herzinger said it was up to Southeast Asian states to determine their national interests and the type of security relationships that best suited their needs.
“For most, balancing relationships with Washington and Beijing will be necessary, with some leaning further to one side than the other,” he said, pointing out that US training would “remain the gold standard”.
Noting that Asean states turned to these joint drills with China as “part of their hedging strategy”, Abdul Rahman Yaacob, a doctorate student at Australian National University, said China’s long-term ability to expand the scale and scope of military drills within the region depended on whether Beijing escalated tensions in the South China Sea.
“There will be domestic pressure within some of the Asean countries not to pursue closer defence relations with China,” he said, adding that since regional states relied on the US for weapons, Washington might disapprove of the deployment of US weapon platforms in joint exercises with China.
“For example, we will not likely see Singapore’s F-35B combat aircraft participate in joint exercises with the Chinese air force,” said Abdul Rahman, adding that joint military exercises with the US were more complex, involving close coordination, command and control, and a high level of interoperability.
Principally funded by the US, the F-35B is said to be the world’s most advanced fighter jet, able to perform both air superiority and strike missions, while providing electronic warfare and intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities.
Singapore announced in February that it would acquire another eight F-35B jets from US manufacturer Lockheed Martin, growing its fleet of the fifth-generation fighters to 12.
Collin Koh, a research fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, said that while the exercises provided regional militaries with an insight into how the People’s Liberation Army worked and its latest capabilities, they did not add as much value in “furnishing new operational insights and building interoperability”, something which could only be gained by participating in exercises with extra-regional counterparts.
Koh added that the drills also helped promote the idea of inclusivity of Association of Southeast Asian Nations in the regional architecture.