'Dangerous' Bolton offer options
Chelsea's cautious approach means they rarely blow away top-half sides at home
Chelsea have coasted through the first two months of the season, with 10 wins and a draw from 11 games in all competitions, but this does not look such an easy week for the English champions. Bolton are the first visitors to Stamford Bridge in tonight's big live game, with Real Betis to follow in the Champions League on Wednesday (see preview below), and neither side will be the pushover that the odds suggest.
'They play a style of football you don't see a lot any more,' was Jose Mourinho's comment after Bolton had fought back from two goals down to earn a 2-2 at Stamford Bridge last season. 'Difficult', 'effective' and 'dangerous' were three other words he used - hardly a description that warrants odds of 121/2-1 on Bolton tonight.
There were indications that Chelsea were more in control when they won 2-0 at Bolton in April - the victory that sealed the championship. But that was one of only three defeats for Bolton in eight games against the big four last season (a record bettered only by Chelsea and Manchester United) and they look in equally good form this term.
It is worth remembering that Chelsea had gone unbeaten in eight games (in all competitions) before their home clash with Bolton last season, so it should not be taken for granted that their current form guarantees victory.
The odds indicate that Chelsea should be conceding a 1.5 goal start on the handicap line, yet their scoring record against the Premiership's better teams suggests they don't enjoy that level of superiority. Safety-first seems to be Chelsea's brief in this type of game and they have beaten only one top-half team by a two-goal margin at home since Jose Mourinho took charge. Chelsea are unbackable - the question is how to play Bolton. They are rare winners against top teams, although that result cannot be ruled out and a handicap bet would be a poor reward if they did triumph. The best bet is to back the draw, along with a small wager on a Bolton win.
Blackburn are also underestimated for their visit to Liverpool. Again the odds suggest that Liverpool are a far superior team, rating them at least -0.75 on the handicap line, yet they have scored only four goals in six games this season.
Blackburn are a well-organised unit, as they proved with a 0-0 at Liverpool in March, and their recent 2-1 win at Manchester United suggests they could do even better when they put out their strongest side.
The absence of Craig Bellamy's pace reduces confidence in Blackburn, though arguably it is balanced by Steven Gerrard's unavailability for Liverpool.
Overall this is a tricky weekend in the Premiership, with Wigan v Newcastle, Birmingham v Aston Villa, Manchester City v West Ham and Charlton v Fulham all difficult to call.
The best home bet should be Middlesbrough, who host Portsmouth, though Steve McClaren's side are inconsistent. Their early home form wasn't bad, but that was before the 2-0 defeat to Sunderland. The derby factor might have been to blame then, and Portsmouth's away record remains poor, so Boro look worth the risk. Arsenal are the away banker at West Brom, with a 1-0 or 2-0 on the cards.
The picks from the Championship are Luton and Reading against bottom-club Crewe and Ipswich respectively.
Best homes: Boro, Reading.
Best aways: Arsenal, Luton.
Low goals: West Brom v Arsenal.
thousand-dollar wager - $200 win: Middlesbrough, Stuttgart, Valencia, Real Betis, Real Zaragoza.
