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Smaller economies jump aboard growth bulls

Southeast Asia's sundry economies are set to grow about 5 per cent this year, thanks to buoyant exports. Local demand could add some icing towards the year-end as borrowing costs peak and oil prices ease.

More gloss may come from petrodollars falling from bulging Arab pockets. Meanwhile, more and more factories will revamp to suit Chinese and Indian tastes.

Despite dizzying deficits, the United States economy continues humbling naysayers, while across the Pacific, China shows no sign of slowing and Japan's much larger economy is getting into gear after a decade of dawdling.

'World trade is booming, which is supporting the export sector, including the electronics industry, which has been picking up from a soft patch,' says David Cohen, Action Economics Asia's forecasting head.

Southeast Asia's plantations and mines are also doing brisk business, providing the oils, latex and minerals that northern economies depend on.

'A lot of the resource-based economies should do pretty good,' says Arthur Woo, an economist at Merrill Lynch. 'China and India need resources - Southeast Asia is well placed to provide them.'

Thick order books are helping Southeast Asia grow despite high oil prices that have nudged up inflation. That and the interest-rate tune played by the US Federal Reserve's pipers mean local borrowing costs will continue climbing in the first few months of this year.

'Domestic demand should be looking more positive in the second half. We should have seen the inflationary effects of the fuel price increases wash through,' says Roland Randall, Macquarie Equities' Southeast Asia economist.

'Inflation will be coming down, but we probably won't see interest rates coming down straight away.'

With so many people working, managers are struggling to fill jobs in some sectors. Not surprisingly, wages are rising, many are looking forward to fat bonuses. That should help consumers pay off some debt and leave change for spending later - not the sort of picture to send investors fleeing.

'Consistent growth in the 4 per cent or 5 per cent range is an attraction to investment. They've been able to achieve this so far without inflation accelerating dramatically despite high oil prices,' says Mr Cohen.

Although China and India undeniably present stiff competition, Southeast Asia is not going to be crushed in their vice. Of course, up against their promise, the region looks a little ordinary.

Not such a bad thing really, as this means Southeast Asia will be less prone to uprisings increasingly common in China, and its bureaucracy is not so tortuous as India's.

'Manufacturing will survive if for no other reason companies don't want to put all their eggs in one basket, for example splitting car production between China and Thailand,' says Mr Randall.

Indeed, some factory work is returning. Vietnam's skilled but cheap hands have attracted footwear, clothes and bag production lines belonging to western and even mainland Chinese investors.

'We are seeing investment flows coming back into Vietnam from Chinese sources. Vietnam is benefiting from Chinese capital, as are Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand,' says Joseph Tan, Southeast Asia economist for Standard Chartered Bank.

Even so, many Southeast Asian manufacturers will spend the year tweaking products and retooling production lines to fit Chinese and Indian niches.

'There should be a growing market for consumer and capital equipment. With growth in incomes will come more travel. I think it's safe to say there will be a lot more tourists from India travelling around the world,' says Mr Cohen.

After building transport arteries, forests of apartments and offices, and power stations by the dozen over the past few decades, Southeast Asia's developers should pick up contracts from India's infrastructure boom.

'I would say the investment flows are in reverse, with the likes of Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand going in to build the physical infrastructure,' says Mr Tan.

Chinese are moving from villages to high-rises at an unprecedented rate. Millions of flats and houses need outfitting each year. Foreign products enjoy kudos, novelty even, that make them popular even at prices higher than locally made equivalents.

For instance, a walk around Ikea in Shanghai reveals rugs made in India and culinary items made in Malaysia.

'At the rate Southeast Asia's exports are being brought into China, [in] another five to seven years the volumes will rival those going to the United States,' says Mr Tan.

Further down the road, China's economy could well stumble on potholes and ruts.

'Short term, we're in a difficult period in the world because of the disinflation China is causing. When it comes off, it will be beneficial for Southeast Asia, India, eastern Europe,' says Sailesh Jha, a senior regional economist at CSFB.

Still, China and India's brightly shining stars are not blinding all to Southeast Asia's charms.

More Middle Eastern petrodollars look like washing up on Southeast Asian shores this year. Fortress America feels chilly, not to mention expensive, compared with the warmer and cheaper welcome Arabs find in Southeast Asia.

Malls, restaurants and hotels are opening with Middle Eastern tastes in mind, especially in Malaysia and Thailand.

'I've heard in Singapore there are a lot of companies looking for people with Arabic-speaking background. I think there's a lot more Middle East money sniffing around,' says Mr Woo.

The Middle Eastern visitors are returning home with souvenirs, photographs and, for some, plans for business ventures. Malaysia and Singapore's Islamic banking and markets go down well with the pious.

'The likes of Dubai, Bahrain and Qatar give a lot of kudos to a place like Singapore as a gateway,' says Mr Tan.

'A lot of the money is coming into the private-wealth sector in Singapore, but also whatever Islamic notes they can get their hands on.'

All told, not a bad year ahead if rain does not fall on the US economy, and one that looks likely to set the stage for next year's even stronger growth.

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