It's the coup season again, observers warn
With the escape of the alleged 2003 mutineers, political observers are looking at the calendar with increasingly anxious eyes - it is coup season in the Philippines.
Joseph Estrada was forced out of Malacanang Palace on January 20, 2001, while strongman Ferdinand Marcos abandoned office on February 25, 1986.
'It is the first-quarter storm all over again,' said Senator Ramon Magsaysay Jnr following the disappearance of the Oakwood Four.
This is the moniker given to four participants in the failed 2003 coup who have fled from a tightly guarded cell.
It is not just the calendar that is causing concern. Senator Magsaysay, a former Senate defence committee chairman, views the recent series of events with suspicion.
Only hours before the four went missing, another Oakwood mutiny leader, navy Lieutenant Senior Grade Antonio Trillanes used a break in his trial to publicly urge Filipinos 'to choose between President Arroyo and change'.
He said the 'time will come when people will choose between the two' and that the military would back the popular choice.
A month ago, another Oakwood mutiny leader, marine Captain Nicanor Faeldon, escaped from military custody. He has embarrassed authorities by taking his fight against President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo to cyberspace, using a blog to show photos of him allegedly inside military camps, despite a nationwide manhunt.
Senator Magsaysay said yesterday: 'I don't want to speculate, but I think the young officers are putting themselves together to undertake an Oakwood 2.'
Coup-plotter-turned-security-analyst Rex Robles believes a fresh military destabilisation move is only a matter of time.
'They [the military officers] are waiting until Mrs Arroyo's luck runs out,' said Mr Robles, based on his talks with disgruntled junior officers. The retired navy commodore added that the president had thus far been very lucky.
Fresh moves to unseat Mrs Arroyo could also have wider participation - communist New People's Army spokesman Gregorio Rosal yesterday offered the missing officers sanctuary and additional manpower to help unseat Mrs Arroyo.
Former defence chief Fortunato Abat, who has been charged with rebellion for declaring himself head of a transition government, also said yesterday he, too, was open to a joint effort to unseat her.
