Abe must find a way around shrine issue
New Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has launched his vision for a 'new Japan' in his first policy address to parliament. It reflects his conservative and nationalist views and does not add much to the pledges he made and goals he set out during his campaign for leadership of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party. But it is clear Mr Abe recognises his new Japan will remain an unfinished work without consolidating a place in international and regional affairs that is commensurate with its economic punching power. To achieve this he must reconcile his nationalism with sensitive, innovative statesmanship.
This emerges clearly from his pledge to parliament to embark on more assertive diplomacy and reduce tensions with China and South Korea. He said, rightly, that strengthening mutual trust with the two countries is extremely significant for the Asian region and the rest of the world.
At 52, Mr Abe is his nation's first post-war baby-boomer prime minister, born nearly a decade after Japan surrendered. He has chosen a cabinet rooted in the same generation. But the war remains baggage that can weigh on his administration. That is the immediate legacy of his popular predecessor, Junichiro Koizumi. It is an issue that can be compressed into two words - Yasukuni Shrine, which unfortunately commemorates the souls of 14 class-A war criminals along with 2.5 million other Japanese war dead. Visits to the shrine by Mr Koizumi and other top Japanese officials have caused deep offence to China and South Korea, leading to a freeze on top-level talks with both countries.
The two words were missing from his policy speech, along with other details of how he will achieve social, economic and security aims. But the issue of official visits to the shrine remains pivotal to improvement in Japan's most important regional relationships, which in turn are fundamental to Mr Abe's vision for a new Japan. It is not made any easier by the revelation that he himself made a secret visit to the shrine earlier this year.
As a new prime minister, Mr Abe was delivering a landmark address to a domestic audience. It was to be expected that it would be long on vision and short on policy detail. He reaffirmed his conservative and nationalist credentials, promising to revise the pacifist post-war constitution drafted by the United States, reform education to instil patriotism, revive traditional Japanese virtues and family ties and consider a bigger international role for Japanese troops.
However, just as a sound external environment is fundamental to Mr Abe's vision, sound domestic economic fundamentals are crucial to his broader aims. The vision will soon be overtaken by the need to sustain the economic turnaround engineered under Mr Koizumi and prevent the economy slipping back into deflation. Economic growth is key to addressing the needs of an ageing population, including a social security system, and further reining in the outstanding 770 trillion yen (HK$51.4 trillion) debt of the central and local governments.
It is Mr Abe who has singled out the urgency of strengthening trust with China and South Korea. It will be a test of his political capacity to fulfil his vision. He has already reached agreement with South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun that they should meet and it remains for aides to fix a date.
How Mr Abe finds a way around the shrine issue that will get Beijing back to the table is the real question. He has to balance his support among nationalists and conservatives with pressure from business to engage with China - Japan's biggest trade partner as from last year. Beijing wants a pledge that he will not visit the shrine while in office. It seems unlikely on past experience that his declaration that he won't make an official visit as prime minister, while maintaining his right to religious freedom as an individual, is a sustainable distinction.
