Playing with fire
True to form, Taiwan's President Chen Shui-bian is once again appealing to the pro-independence sentiments of his hardcore supporters, despite American opposition. This comes after a months-long campaign to get him to step down because of corruption scandals involving his family and close political associates.
Twice in the past 10 days, he has brought up a string of sensitive issues, including: whether Taiwan and the mainland are separate countries; reforming Taiwan's constitution; changing the territorial definition of the Republic of China (Taiwan's formal name); and joining the United Nations under the name 'Taiwan' instead of the Republic of China.
Each time Mr Chen says such things, the United States slaps him down. After his statements at a seminar on constitutional revision, a State Department spokesman said last week: 'The United States does not support independence for Taiwan, and we continue to be opposed to unilateral changes in the status quo by either side.'
On Thursday, Mr Chen declared: 'Taiwan is Taiwan. China is China. They are two completely different countries.' The following day, Washington again warned him by saying: 'We take seriously President Chen's repeated commitments not to permit the constitutional reform process to touch on Taiwan's status, including territorial definition. President Chen's fulfilment of his commitments will be a test of leadership, dependability and statesmanship.'
Washington is clearly on guard against anything that Mr Chen might say or do that could provoke Beijing, since it does not want to be dragged into a war with the mainland over Taiwan.
Beijing is careful not to say too much, for fear that Mr Chen might use its comments to rally Taiwanese against a perceived threat from the outside.
That is why, through months of turmoil in Taiwan - when hundreds of thousands of people have taken part in protests against Mr Chen - Beijing's only comment has been that this was Taiwan's own internal affair.
However, when Mr Chen spoke about changing the constitution, Beijing could no longer hold its tongue. 'We will not tolerate Taiwan's de jure independence by a constitutional amendment,' said Li Weiyi , the spokesman for the mainland's Taiwan Affairs Office.
'Whoever attempts to separate Taiwan from China by any means is playing with fire and is bound to go up in flames, suffering an ignominious defeat,' he said.
Beijing is in a difficult position. It knows that responding in public may help Mr Chen mobilise public opinion against the mainland. But then, silence might be taken as tolerance of pro-independence statements.
Mr Chen will no doubt continue to make such remarks in the coming weeks - in an attempt both to solidify his political base in Taiwan and provoke Beijing into making rash statements that would cause Taiwanese to focus on the mainland rather than on their president.
Beijing has learned a lesson from its previous experiences. Its attempts to bully Taiwan have been counterproductive. In 1996, when it conducted military exercises in the Taiwan Strait, Taiwanese president Li Teng-hui was re-elected by a big margin. And in 2000, when it warned the Taiwanese not to elect the wrong person, Chen Shui-bian emerged as the victor.
So Beijing must simply bite its tongue and bide its time, for Mr Chen is known for his ability to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.
As for the US, it is in a way the victim of the monster that it created. When it first came into office, the Bush administration assured Taiwan that it would do 'whatever it took' to help the island defend itself. Taipei concluded that the US would come to its aid regardless of anything that it might do. Taiwan has also traded on its status as a democracy, in contrast with the authoritarian government in Beijing.
And so Taiwan - or, at least, the Chen administration - feels that it can provoke the mainland without any fear of the consequences. That is unlikely to change fundamentally until there is a change of administration in Taipei.
