Advertisement
Advertisement

Weighed down by nationalism

With exquisite timing, North Korean leader Kim Jong-il has given Japan's new prime minister, Shinzo Abe, an opportunity to show his potential to become a statesman. A word of caution, however: Mr Abe's immediate reaction to Mr Kim's nuclear threat - 'If the country dares to do it, it will never be forgivable' - shows that the Japanese leader still doesn't appreciate the potential or pitfalls of the job.

Mr Abe is going to Beijing and South Korea tomorrow and Monday. Mr Kim's threat to explode a nuclear weapon has swept other issues off the table and raised the stakes for the neophyte prime minister. Now Mr Abe has the chance to redefine the profile of Japan.

Even before Mr Kim became the unwanted spectre at the table, Beijing and Seoul had quickly responded to Mr Abe's wish for a meeting. They set no conditions, and didn't mention the controversial question of Japanese leaders visiting Tokyo's Yasukuni Shrine, where 14 convicted Class-A war criminals are honoured along with 2.5 million ordinary war dead.

Mr Abe has been a regular visitor to Yasukuni. He is the grandson of Nobusuke Kishi - jailed as a Class-A war criminal, though never tried - who went on to help found Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party and become prime minister. Elected LDP leader and prime minister last month, Mr Abe has pointedly refused to answer questions about whether he will visit Yasukuni. Instead, he has emphasised his intention to improve relations with Japan's neighbours, along with creating 'a new Japan' - strong, and proud of its culture and history.

Unfortunately, those two ambitions pull in different directions. Still more unfortunately, Mr Abe may not be able to see this, as his comment about North Korea suggests. The Abe agenda also includes scrapping Japan's pacifist constitution which, he points out, was imposed by the American occupiers almost 60 years ago. He wants to write a new one that will allow Japan to become a 'normal nation' - with fully fledged armed forces instead of the current Self-Defence Forces. In addition, he promises to introduce sweeping changes to Japan's education law to bring back 'patriotism' to the classrooms, with respect for the flag and anthem. One of the strange paradoxes of modern Japan is the immense gulf between modern economic life and the standards of political debate. Japan's big companies, like Toyota, Canon and Toshiba, have been forced to compete in international markets. So they have become modern and efficient; they've hired foreign staff and become true multinationals.

Big business has been the leader in calling for the politicians to move on and find a way out of the Yasukuni impasse that will not expose their global investments to risk in China or other countries where nationalist feelings run high.

But the politicians live in another world, bounded by dreams of the past and protective of an imaginary culture that would be impossible to recreate.

Japanese politicians make statements that are sometimes just loony; sometimes wrong-headed. One minister lamented a court decision allowing teachers to refuse to sing the national anthem and raise the hinomaru (rising sun) flag in schools. He claimed that the British flag was called the 'bloodstained Union Jack', but that British people have never called for it to be changed.

In Britain, no school that I know of ever has a daily or even weekly flag-raising or singing of the anthem. Indeed, the British experience is that people who wrap themselves in the flag, either metaphorically or actually, are either fascist fringe politicians or football hooligans.

But, when Japan's new nationalistic political agenda spills into international affairs, it gets dangerous - ultimately, for Japan. In all the discussions about the new agenda, there is little appreciation that Japan, though still bigger economically than China, is smaller in terms of population - 2 per cent of the world rather than 20 per cent - and diplomatic clout. Mr Abe, though he has little international diplomatic experience, already has substantial baggage.

He made his reputation and staked his claim to succeed Junichiro Koizumi by talking tough against North Korea and condemning Pyongyang's abduction of children from Japan in the 1970s and 1980s. He has argued that it would 'not necessarily [be] unconstitutional' for Japan to use nuclear weapons in a pre-emptive strike against North Korea.

When he gets to Beijing, he will find that China and South Korea are extremely worried about Mr Kim's nuclear threat - both with good reason. A nuclear strike would hit Seoul in mere seconds, and China fears the flood of refugees and damage if North Korea were attacked or the Kim regime collapsed.

Both countries would prefer that Mr Kim be engaged, talked and coaxed out of his nuclear weapons folly. So Mr Abe would be best advised to encourage China to work harder, as Mr Kim's best friend, to talk him out of his madness. At the same time, he should try to persuade his US ally that talking to Mr Kim would be more successful than a military strike.

New kids on the block don't get far by waving their flags under the noses of the big kids. They get further by trying to make the established gang members feel the newcomers have something to contribute. For a new prime minister wishing to make his mark as a macho leader, this may be too subtle a role to play.

Kevin Rafferty is author of Inside Japan's Powerhouses, a guide to the big corporations that have rebuilt Japan from the ashes of war

Post