Which side is Pakistan on?
It has been an interesting few weeks for those who revel in speculating about the whereabouts and health of the world's most wanted man, Osama bin Laden. The French newspaper L'Est Republicain last month published a leaked French intelligence report saying the al-Qaeda leader may have died recently in Pakistan - according to Saudi sources.
Ten days later, The Washington Post published supposedly high-level al-Qaeda correspondence: it backed the long-standing claims that bin Laden is hiding in Pakistan.
All concerned - from the French and the Saudis to the United States and Pakistan - immediately poured cold water on the death claims. The possible confirmation of bin Laden's presence in Pakistan, however, is being taken far more seriously.
It comes on the heels of a highly controversial agreement that Pakistan has signed with pro-Taleban tribal leaders and militants in the Waziristan region. That's the area where bin Laden may be hiding. Some of the factions that signed the agreement are likely to be harbouring him and other senior al-Qaeda figures.
Last week, the Post published parts of a letter purportedly written in Waziristan, by a member of al-Qaeda's high command, in December. It was found in June, by US forces in Iraq. The letter is signed by 'Atiyah' - who US officials believe is Libyan Atiyah Abd al-Rahman, a close associate of bin Laden's since the 1980s.
US experts say the letter is authentic. It provides the clearest and most direct evidence yet of the presence in Pakistan of al-Qaeda leaders after the war in Afghanistan. It describes their lines of communications with al-Qaeda forces in Iraq, and gives the most likely whereabouts of bin Laden and/or al-Qaeda deputy leader Ayman al-Zawahiri.
'I am with them', reads the letter - a possible reference to the two al-Qaeda leaders. It also describes the difficulty of speedy and safe communications between Waziristan and Iraq.
The release of the letter has focused even more scrutiny on the Pakistani regime of President Pervez Musharraf - and its capability and commitment to fighting terror. The agreement in Waziristan has raised widespread concern: many see it as a deal with, for all intents and purposes, the Pakistani wing of the Taleban. It has revitalised a debate in the United States over the Taleban's rather cosy relationship with Pakistan since 9/11.
Recent developments in Afghanistan have only added to such concerns. The direct role of Waziristan-based groups in the current Taleban resurgence there is clear for all to see. That resurgence has led to many deaths of US, and particularly British and Nato forces, in the past few months.
In the recent Waziristan agreement, Islamabad secured no guarantees about groups refraining from supporting cross-border activities and attacks - in which they have been openly involved. General Musharraf's recent visit to Afghanistan thus did little to diminish Afghan and US cynicism regarding his government's current policies on this issue.
So Pakistan is once again being questioned on its counter-terror record from many quarters of the international community. And top-level Indian officials have accused Pakistani agencies of helping to plan and carry out the Mumbai bombings in July.
Only tangible actions, not the familiar rhetoric from General Musharraf and his officials, will put a stop to these questions. Without such actions, and results, tensions with neighbouring India and Afghanistan - and the ever-present United States - will only grow worse.
Hagai Segal, a terrorism and Middle-East specialist, lectures at New York University in London
