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By further embracing the pro-independence camp, president could fend off possible pressure from his party

Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian  has fought hard to cling to power despite a mounting corruption cloud over his wife, Wu Shu-chen.

The embattled leader, who survived two recall motions initiated by the opposition in the legislature in June and September seeking to remove him from office, has resisted growing  pressure for his resignation since he and his family first became embroiled in  scandals in April.

The indictment against his wheelchair-bound wife yesterday  dealt a serious blow to Mr Chen, especially as he has said he would resign if he or his wife were found to be  involved in corruption.

In the indictment, Wu was charged with working with the president to 'swindle' NT$14.8 million (HK$3.4 million) out of a special state fund appropriated for the Presidential Office between 2002 and this year.

Because the island's leader enjoys immunity from prosecution in criminal cases, other than treason and sedition, he was not officially charged yesterday, though the judicial authorities would not rule out charging him with corruption after he steps down.

Analysts, however, said the lawyer in Mr Chen, who is noted for his iron will, would make it difficult for the beleaguered leader to quit of his own volition.

They said Mr Chen would seek sanctuary from the pro-independence camp in order to serve out his term, which ends in May 2008.

'This explains why he made the institution of a new constitution a big issue during his interview with the Financial Times,' said Emile Sheng Chih-jen,  professor of political science at Soochow University.

In an interview with the London-based newspaper, Mr Chen strongly promoted his proposal for a 'freeze' of the current constitution to pave the way for the institution of a new one  and formation of a so-called 'second republic'.

He also said Taiwan's existing boundaries did not cover the mainland, a statement underscoring his belief that Taiwan was independent.

'This was the first time Chen has touted such concepts so clearly,' said George Tsai Wei,  a research fellow at the Institute of International Relations.

By pledging to push for the new constitution for Taiwan before he steps down  in 2008, Mr Chen hoped for more support from the pro-independence camp to fend off possible pressure from his ruling Democratic Progressive Party, Professor Tsai said.

Analysts said Mr Chen would have no choice but to show his determination to embrace Taiwanese independence if he was to resist  pressure  to step down.

'Other than facing pressure from the opposition, he has to deal with the DPP, which, in a bid to defend itself, may be forced to do something to distance itself from him,' said Edward Chen I-hsin,  a political analyst and professor at Tamkang University.

Professor Sheng said  the DPP would stand to lose the year-end mayoral elections in Taipei and Kaohsiung if it failed to do anything.

Professor Tsai said that there were three factors governing the fate of Chen Shui-bian: the attitude of the hardline pro-independence camp, the possible conviction of his wife, and the attitude of the United States, which has so far expressed its support for Mr Chen through its de facto ambassador, Stephen Young.



Chen likely to seek refuge with hardliners,  say analysts