As voting for the 2012 Legislative Council election closed at 10.30pm on Sunday, one exit poll tipped an early lead for the pan-democrats – and predicted some surprise defeats for political heavyweights and veteran campaigners.
According to an a exit poll conducted by the Public Opinion Programme (POP) of the University of Hong Kong posted at 10pm on Sunday, the new “super seat” contester James To Kun-sun of the Democratic Party stood a very high chance of winning among the seven slates running for the five seats in the district council constituency.
Starry Lee Wai-king of the Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong and Albert Ho Chun-yan of the Democratic Party have a relatively higher chance of winning than believed earlier.
Chan Ka-lok of the Civic Party was rated a very high chance of winning among the 14 slates in the Hong Kong Island geographical constituency.
Jasper Tsang Yok-sing and Christopher Chung Shu-kun of the Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong and Sin Chung-kai of the Democratic Party had relatively bigger chance of winning, pollsters said.
The chances of winning of Cyd Ho Sau-lan of the Labour Party, Regina Ip Lau Suk-yee of the New People’s Party and Miriam Lau Kin-yee of the Liberal Party are hanging in the balance, the survey said.
In the Kowloon East geographical constituency, seven slates out of nine – including Civic Party’s Alan Leong Kah-kit, People Power’s Wong Yeung-tat and Democratic Party’s Wu Chi-wai – were deemed to have a relatively better chance of winning.
In the Kowloon West geographical constituency, three pan-democrats – Wong Pik-wan of the Democratic Party, Wong Yuk-man of People Power and Claudia Mo Man-ching of the Civic Party and the pro-establishment Leung Mei-fun of Kowloon West New Dynamic – were predicted to have relatively higher chances of winning.
In the New Territories West geographical constituency, only Civic Party’s Kwok Ka-ki was rated as having a very high chance of winning among the 16 slates and 11 slates – including Lee Cheuk-yan of the Labour Party, Albert Chan Wai-yip of People Power and Tam Yiu-chung of the Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong – were considered to have similar chances of winning.
For the highly-contested New Territories East geographical constituency, the two slates believed to have very high chance of winning are “Long Hair” Leung Kwok-hung and Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong’s Elizabeth Quat, while other seven slates – including Liberal Party’s James Tien Pei-chun and Federation of Trade Unions’ Ip Wai-ming – had similar chances of winning.
However, Ivan Choy Chi- keung, a political scientist at the Chinese University, said the exit poll results were factually representative of the way voting took place since competition was very keen amid rumours on the internet that voters gave false information to exit pollsters.
“Some small details were missing between the options ‘very high chance of winning’, ‘relatively high chance of winning’ and ‘fair chance of winning’ and even after looking into the exit polls, the whole picture of the election results was still hard to be analysed,” said Choy.