Hong Kong 2030 Plus: is it really planning or just guesswork?
Government, having provided the framework, should let the market predict where and when housing supply is needed rather than second guessing
In many ways the most important element to get right in any forward planning exercise is the population figures.
As the Hong Kong 2030 Plus consultation document states, figures from the Census and Statistics Department predict that Hong Kong’s population will peak at 8.22 million in 2043 and decline from there as the full impacts of an ageing population and smaller family sizes take hold, just as they have in Japan.
Yet at the conclusion of the document, the government, without any justifications, seems to insist on planning for a target population of 9 million. Where do they get this figure from, when within the next 10 years Hong Kong’s natural population will start to decline, with deaths being greater than births, and with only the daily intake of One Way Permit (OWP) holders to provide any growth? Currently the daily quota of 150 OWPs is rarely met, with a figure close to 100 being the norm.
The planning is based on the higher figure which simply cannot be justified unless there is a hidden agenda for greater immigration that we have not been told about. Or maybe it is simply guesswork.
A much more rational approach, before throwing large amounts of money into investigating the creation of new land for this fictitious population, would be to accept the expert advice of the Census and Statistics Department and plan for a maximum population of 8.22 million. At a stroke this would eliminate the need to even consider the East Lantau Metropolis (ELM).